3. DUBAI DESERT CLASSIC, Emirates GC, 1-4 feb 2007

This week we find ourselves in Dubai, for the much-anticipated first duel of 2007 between Tiger Woods and Ernie Els. The 'American style" Emirates Golf Club is a much-liked pit-stop for the 120 strong field, especially Tiger, who will receive more than the ENTIRE prize fund as an appearance fee alone!

There doesn't appear to be any great value in selecting Woods as a tip this week, as he is only around the 11-8 against mark, pretty poor considering Dubai hosts a world-class field this week, unlike Tiger's win at the Buick last week. Tiger does have a good record here, and IS the current champion, but 11-8 just doesn't appeal.
The 5-1 quote for big Ernie though, DOES appeal. One of his favourite courses, alongside Royal Melbourne and Wentworth's West (obviously - he re-designed it), he is a three times champion here and shook off a wee bit of winter rust at Dohar last week.

There is also a persuasive argument to plump for Henrik Stenson again, but he has complained of fatigue over the last two weekends, and missed many birdie chances last weekend - maybe he is best left alone (at 14-1 3rd favourite) for a week or two. (Famous last words?)

Two to definitely consider though are Miguel Angel Jimenez and David Howell. Jimenez always seems to start every season like a bleedin greyhound, (a weird-looking, ginger-permed, cigar-smoking, clown greyhound, I grant you), and the Howler, after more injury concerns at the tail-end of last season will want to start pushing for the order of merit already; a title which the very amiable Swindon man, apart from his injury bad luck, probably would have won at a canter last year. These two, because the bookies cannot see past Tiger and Ernie, are available at very generous odds each way.

Two others for the shortlist might be Graeme McDowell who seems to be bang on form at this time, and Nick Dougherty again.


The 'fun' long-odds bet of the week though, again lies across the pond. It's superbowl weekend time and the FBR Open in Arizona is ready for a brash weekend of boozing and roaring crowds. This course seems designed for golfers who hit the ball MILES in ANY direction - no rough to speak of - every par 4 or 5 is looked at as a birdie chance. So....
how about a little each-way punt on BUBBA WATSON at 80-1 against? This bloke is the longest-hitter on the US tour at the moment at around 335yds per drive, on average! It must be noted here also that a certain Mr.Phil Mickelson has added 20yds to his driving last week, now hitting on average 315yds, by unveiling his new Callaway square-headed monster, so I suppose his class can't be ruled out. But at only 9-1 against, I'll stick with Watson.
Feel the love, Bubba!

(NB. This selection will not count again to this balance).

Current balance: £480

SELECTIONS:

Els £3 e/w 5-1
McDowell £1 e/w 80-1
Howell 50p e/w 50-1
Jimenez 50p e/w 33-1

Balance after stake (pre-tournament): £470

===============================================

RESULT:
Because I am without the internet for a week or two, (as posted before), I will only give basic results and comments for the next few tournaments as described, after the 18th february.
Watch this space...

Ok. It's 19th Feb now, and we're back online!
The result of the Dubai Desert Classic, was an each-way return on Ernie Els only. After a great start by McDowell, Jimenez and a good fightback from Els, at the close of the final round, only Els made "Twenty-Six" any profit at all, by coming 2nd at 5-1. Jimenez came a creditable eighth on Sunday afternoon.

[NB.Unfortunately also, after LEADING for a time, during the 2nd round, and giving followers of 26 a great run for their money, Bubba Watson slipped down the leaderboard on the final day at the FBR open in Arizona, to finish JUST out of the money in eighth place. Aw Shucks....! So close...!]

WINNINGS: £4.25
PROFIT/LOSS: -£5.75
BALANCE AFTER TOURNAMENT: £474.25

COMMENT: See above.

Before the DDC...

Just to let interested people know...

Because I will be without e-mail for 2.5weeks, between the 1st Feb and 18th Feb, this year, I will not be able to run a normal, weekly selection service until the "WGC Accenture World MatchPlay" at Tuscon, Arizona which starts on the 21st February.

I will still be making selections, (I'll text a few people my selections so I don't get accused of 'cheating'), and following the results in the press and on ceefax, but my proposed schedule regarding THIS site is as follows...

31st Jan 2007 - selections for the Dubai Desert Classic published on '26Blogsite'.
01-04 Feb 2007 - DUBAI DESERT CLASSIC held.

7th Feb 2007 - selections for Malaysian Open sent out via text.
08-11th Feb 2007 - MALAYSIAN OPEN held.

14th Feb 2007 - selections for Indonesian Open OR Nissan Open(U.S.) via text.
15-18th Feb 2007 - INDONESIAN OPEN and NISSAN OPEN (U.S.) held.
20th Feb(ish) 2007 - Basic results / returns / balances for last 3 tournaments published IN BRIEF on 26Blogsite.

20th Feb 2007 - Selections for WGC World Matchplay Championship, Tuscon, Arizona, published on 26 Blogsite.
21-25th Feb 2007 - WGC WORLD MATCHPLAY (1) held.
27th Feb(ish) - Results published in full on 26Blogsite. Normal weekly service resumed.

2. QATAR MASTERS. Doha. 25th-28th Jan 2007.

On to Qatar, and a star-studded field of 120 at the Dohar Golf Club, famed for its oasis-like appearance in the middle of the desert, it's tricky, sloping grainy greens, and the Shamal - the afternoon desert wind that often plays havoc with late starters...

The bet of the week probably lies across the pond where Woods makes his season debut at The Buick Invitational in California, a tournament he has won for the past two years and four times in the nine times he's started.
At 7-4 against, with only Veejay and Phil from the world's top 18 to keep him company, the 'meagre' odds seem very generous to be fair! Some bookies are even tempting punters into having a punt on both Woods and Els winning their respective tournaments with a double bet odds of 22-1...!
But, let us concentrate on the EPGA for now...

Balance before tournament: £490

Selections:
Ernie Els, £3 to win 15-2F
Henrik Stenson, £3 to win 11-1
Robert Karlsson, £1 e/w 25-1
Nick Dougherty, £1 e/w 40-1

Balance after stake (pre-tournament): £480

=========================================

Result:

Els- R1:9th, R2: 20th, R3: 9th, FINAL POS'N: 3rd
Stenson- R1: 5th, R2: 4th, R3: 4th, FINAL POS'N: =7th
Karlsson- R1: 19th, R2: 29th, R3: 21st, FINAL POS'N: =22nd
Dougherty- R1: 5th, R2: 13th, R3: 15th, FINAL POS'N: =16th

Winnings: £0
Profit or loss: -£10
Final balance to take to next tournament: £480

Comment: Interesting to note that last week's winner Paul Casey missed the cut here, along with 2004 Qatar winner - Joakim Haegmann, and John Bickerton who is playing, (and just as importantly here, putting) very well. Darren Clarke on his season debut also failed to perform, (this might last some time this year, for obvious reasons), scoring seven over for two rounds and missing the cut by a long way...
Ok. The 'bet of the week' described above, ie Woods to win the Buick at 7-4, of course came in - which is something I suppose, but does NOT count for this tipping machine...

Annyyywwaaay....
Regarding the Qatar Masters tips -
Els didn't really start firing on all cylinders until the final round, but still finished 3rd at 13 under par. A solid season debut from the 'Big Easy', but not quite what he or we wanted.
Henrik Stenson briefly challenged for the title even in the final round, but finished =7th with a score of minus eleven.
Dougherty was very 'mercurial' during the last 3 rounds, bobbing up and down the leaderboard like a yo-yo, but couldn't really find any consistency and finished =16th at -8.
Karlsson, a bit like Dougherty, was also on the leaderboard at times, but slipped away to finish at -6, in =22nd position.
The tournament was snatched from reknowned bridesmaid "Pallid Nick" (my nickname for the queezy-looking Australian 'freaky' left-hander), by Retief Goosen who birdied the 17th and then EAGLED the last, to win by one stroke at fifteen under par! Poor old O'Hern must have thought the title was very very nearly his. Again!
Another 'bridesmaid' (who also just happens to be an Ozzy left-hander) in the shape of Richard Green, and another Australian, Stuart Appelby, (making his first appearance at Dohar - thanks mainly to his dislike of the 'Buick Invitation' course at Torrey Pines on the USPGA tour) made the frame, along with Graeme McDowell - nice to see.
Interesting to note also at Dohar, a possible return to form (at last) of our last major winner - Paul Lawrie, after last weeks return to form of another stalwart Scot, the dour-faced Gary Orr. I DO hope these two have a good season.

In summary then - a tournament for the 'Southern Hemisphere boys' this year, and more solid performances from the tips but STILL awaiting a return!

1. ABU DHABI. JAN 18th-21st '07

ABU DHABI GOLF CLUB.

FIELD: 120 players.

Opening balance: £500

HENRIK STENSON £2 e/w 12-1
MONTGOMERIE £1 e/w 33-1
JAIDEE £1 e/w 66-1
J.M. SINGH £1 e/w 40-1

Balance before result of tournament £490

================================================


RESULT-

STENSON. R1:2nd, R2:11th, R3:15th, FINAL POSITION: 8th
MONTY. R1:18th, R2:30th, R3:24th, FINAL POSITION: =14th
JAIDEE. R1:8th, R2:18th, R3:6th, FINAL POSITION: =14th
J.M.SINGH. R1:76th, R2:m/c.

BALANCE BEFORE TOURNAMENT: £490
WINNINGS: £0
PROFIT/LOSS: -£10

BALANCE AFTER TOURNAMENT: £490

Comment: A bit unfortunate really. Singh missed the cut by one stroke so didn't play at the weekend. Stenson missed making the account some money at the end of proceedings by one stroke, (he finished at 13 under - 14 under would have placed him at equal 5th (not as he finished, at 8th place). Jaidee climbed as high as 5th midway through the final round, at 66-1 odds, but then failed to keep up his momentum to finish alongside Montgomerie in equal 14th place.

Paul Casey won the tournament at -17 with a fine last round, pipping Jimenez and Peter Hanson to the post, with Goosen, Di Marco and Harrington (the 'cream of the field') not far behind...

To summarise - a solid performance by 3 of the 4 'tips', but no return..... yet!

EUROPEAN TOUR. 2007.

Three years ago I followed the entire European Golf Tour, (start to finish), (plus a few of the larger American tournaments) running a "virtual betting" competition against a pal, with a starting balance of £500; using our own tips and the correct bookies odds, to see if we made any "virtual profit" at the end of the season.

I also took on a world-reknowned golfing tipster, to see if it was all down to luck, and a mugs game...

I documented the whole year in a hardback notebook and have kept it for future reference.

The result? I comprehensively beat my pal, who got fed up of me "lending him virtual money" and gave up. I also beat the expert by about £50 by the end of the season, having made a "virtual profit" of just over £500, after "virtual betting" on around 40 tournaments.

I have made many (documented) conclusions regarding ACTUALLY putting REAL money on golf tournaments which I've summarised from my hardback below...

1) It IS a mug's game - best bet: NO BET!
2) If I do bet on the Open / PGA for example, check my 2004 hardback!
3) CURRENT FORM is generally a better guide than COURSE FORM
4) Value isn't all that important
5) Bet early in the season
6) Steer clear of "Bridesmaids", (Nick O'Hern etc... (although HE'S just won!))
7) Disregard dodgy putters
8) On the US tour, LENGTH of drive often important
9) Catch someone on a roll, before the inevitable 'crash'
10) NEVER disregard golfers on their own patch or country
11) If placing a bet (I wouldn't though) keep stakes LOW!

Whilst I made an eventual "virtual profit" of around £500, this came pretty well down to a few great results (shown below). The majority of my "virtual bets" went tits up, obviously.

My best results for the 2004 season were as follows...


BOONCHU RUANGIT 100-1. (4th in the Johnnie Walker Classic, Thailand).
£5 e/w. PROFIT OF £125

THONGCHAI JAIDEE 14-1. (WON the Malaysian Open, Kualar Lumpar).
£100 e/w. PROFIT £1100!

TIGER WOODS 4-1. (WON Accenture World MatchPlay Champs, Carlsbad, CA)
£140 e/w. PROFIT £700

ERNIE ELS 5-1. (3rd in the Dubai Desert Classic, Emirates Club)
£90 e/w. PROFIT £112.50p

ADAM SCOTT 50-1. (WON the '5th Major', TPC at Sawgrass, USA)
£30 e/w. PROFIT £1875

ERNIE ELS 10-1. (2nd in the Masters at Augusta, Georgia)
£250 e/w. PROFIT £625

STEVEN GALLACHER 50-1. (2nd in the Seville Open)
£25 e/w. PROFIT £287.50p

SOREN KJELDSEN 150-1. (5th in TPC Europe, the Deutschbank Open,St.Leon Rot)
£50 e/w. PROFIT £1825.50p

ANDERS HANSEN 40-1. (4th in the Volvo PGA Champs, Wentworth, Surrey)
£50 e/w. PROFIT £450

GRAHAM McDOWELL 40-1. (4th in the French Open)
£50 e/w. PROFIT £450

ANDERS HANSEN 66-1. (4th in the Heritage at Woburn(Duke's Course))
£25 e/w. PROFIT £387.50p


You will see that after totalling up all these profits, to only make a final profit of £500 means I lost a shitload of money on other "virtual bets" during the year.

You will also note that my "tips" only WON 3 times - JAIDEE, WOODS and SCOTT.

The most 'satisfying' result for me was the ADAM SCOTT win. I could not believe he was quoted at 50-1 before the TPC started. I try not to bet with real money on the golf, but my bakery pal at the time, had a wee bit of spare moolah, and I'd got him interested in betting, so he put real money on at the bookies and made a tidy sum thanks to me. It nearly went pear-shaped though. If you are a golf fan, you might remember Adam putting his approach to the last into the water, getting away with it with a very cool (under the circumstances) 'up and down' for a final bogey and a first big win.

My most satisfying result from a REAL golf bet was the fine result I had on 'The Elk' STEVE ELKINGTON who was involved in a playoff for the 2002 Open at Muirfield.
Down and out after two rounds, you might remember a freak 'hurricane' passed over the course late in day two, WELL after Steve had completed his 2nd round, but laying waste to the scores of those still out - including Woods et al.
Elkington amazingly therefore started round 3 very near the top of the leaderboard, and come sunday, he actually had a 20'putt on the last to WIN it. At 250-1!!! I would have retired on that!
Of course he missed, and disappointed in the playoff. Nice result for me anyway though at HUGE odds. £2.50p e/w made me a profit of just over £150. All down to the freaky weather at the time...!



Right. 3 years off.

Time to start again....

There will an opening balance of £500 again, tips,odds and breakdown with maybe a few comments...

maximum of a £10 TOTAL stake per tournament.

Here we go...!