The season isn't over, far from it, its hardly even winding down just yet, but its fair to say that "TwentySix" needs a few good weeks and quick, or any statistical analysis come the end of the year will make for painful reading.
This years's Johnnie Walker at Gleneagles MAY (Ssshhh...) be just the tournament we need. Five par 5s at the Centenary course, high winds always a danger and the top three or four in the market certainly underpriced, means we may just have a chance with some outsiders - and that is exactly what "TwentySix" needs...
No real explanation here, just the selections, and lots of crossing fingers...
Opening balance: £393.96p
Selections:
Lynn £1.50p e/w 50-1
McDowell £1 e/w 33-1
Forsyth £1 e/w 40-1
Fisher £1 e/w 40-1
Lima 50p e/w 150-1
Total stake: £10
Balance before tournament: £383.96p
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Result:
Lynn =14th
McDowell m/c
Forsyth =18th
Fisher m/c
Lima m/c
Winnings: £0
Profit / Loss: -£10
Balance after tournament: £383.96p
Comment: I've been away for this weekend, so didn't follow this tournament at all. That said, we were right to say it might be a weekend to back an outsider - the tournament was won by Marc Warren at 200-1, who triumphed in a playoff over the 150-1 Simon Wakefield! We just didn't choose the right outsiders!
This was another poor result for "TwentySix" - NOT what we needed after all. We had a chance with the chubby Scot, Ally Forsyth, who was tied 4th at the end of the penultimate round, but then had a nightmare 74 in his final round and ended up 18th. The human coathanger David Lynn really never threatened, and all our other picks missed the cut!
Never mind, that's forgotten now - and next week we'll just do better then!
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
30. KLM (DUTCH) OPEN. KENNEMER GC, ZANDVOORT, HOLLAND, 23-26 AUGUST 07
A very poor field this week for the KLM Open near Zandvoort, at one of the shortest pro-courses in the world at a mere 6,626 yards - which should turn this tournament into little more than a glorified putting competition, as not only is the course very short indeed, but very generous of the tees also.
I guess the most interesting thing to say about this tournament is the fact that Bernhard Langer plays his 435th European Tour tournament this week, alongside his 17 year old son, Stefan, who is playing his first...
Opening balance: £393.96p
Selections:
Cevaer £1.50p e/w 33-1
Dyson (tournament favourite) £1 e/w 16-1
Langer £1 e/w 28-1
Levet £1 e/w 50-1
Brier 50p e/w 22-1
Total stake: £10
Balance after stake: £383.96p
========================================
Result:
Cevaer: =52nd
Dyson: =27th
Langer: =3rd
Levet: =3rd
Brier: =8th
Winnings: £12.90p
Profit / Loss: +£2.90p
Closing balance: £396.86p
Comment: After one of the poorer set of selections in last weeks tournament, to one of the best tournaments "Twenty Six" has had, although a clear example of why ACTUAL betting on golf doesn't pay - even when you win!
"TwentySix" chose 5 golfers, 3 of which finished in the top 8, 2 of which finished equal 3rd, and at odds of 50-1 (Levet) and 28-1 (Langer), this SHOULD have meant a decent return.
The trouble is that whilst Langer and Levet finished tied for third place, 3 others did also, on 8 under, which meant the next place taken on the leaderboard was eighth place (one of our picks also - Brier at 7 under).
Let me show you "the math".
Levet came 3rd at 50-1 £1 e/w.
The odds of a place bet are always ONE QUARTER the starting price to win in golf.
The formula for return is (odds x stake)+stake
So the return SHOULD HAVE BEEN (50/4 x 1)+1=£13.50p
BUT, because an each-way bet is generally only down to FIFTH place, the return is less than that, because altough Levet finished 3rd, he effectively also finished joint 7th as well, as he finished tied on a score which 4 others finished on also, ie 3rd and 4th and 5th and 6th and 7th.
THEREFORE the ACTUAL return is 3/5 x return, ie 3rd,4th,5th/3rd,4th,5th,6th,7th x return,
so in Levet's case, ACTUAL RETURN= 3/5x£13.50p = £8.10p
(And in Langer's case its 3/5x £8 = £4.80p
Do you see the injustice in this?! 156 golfers, we pick 5, 2 of which finish 3rd at odds of 28-1 and 50-1 and we get peanuts back...
This has happened to me in real life once, when I bet real money on Soren Kjeldsen at Wentworth a few years ago at huge odds. He came joint 5th and was expecting a bumper payback, until the kindly bookie (grrr!) explained to me that he finished joint 5th with about 5 other people, so my return was 1/5 what I thought it would be!
Anyway, enough of the injustices of betting on golf - Ross Fisher won this (The Dutch or KLM Open) tournament this year, after a "stewards enquiry". Hacks have been talking Ross up all year, saying he'd win something sooner rather than later, and hey, they were right - this is Ross's first win on the European tour.
Good to see Langer back in the groove again, after his kidney-stone op, and enforced 3 week lay off. Very bad to see his son struggle massively - I think he scored the SECOND WORST ROUND EVER ON THE EUROPEAN TOUR in the first round, with a score of TWENTY EIGHT OVER! ( I think Mark James holds the record with a score of over 100, if I remember correctly, but also if I remember correctly, he was playing through a bout of dysentry (or something) at the time of that round)! Stefan Langer improved to score Twenty-One over in the second round, to finish plumb last at FORTY-NINE OVER, and miss the cut by 49 strokes.
The Langers NEARLY had the unfortunate? record of having father and son play the same event, with father winning it and son coming last!
(I'm told Bernhard knew Stefan would struggle, as he's been tinkering with his swing - blimey, that's some tinkering - I'm pretty sure I could have beaten him with that score!)
Anyway, a small profit for "TwentySix", which is always better than a slap round the face with a wet halibut...
We're off to Gleneagles next... see you there.
I guess the most interesting thing to say about this tournament is the fact that Bernhard Langer plays his 435th European Tour tournament this week, alongside his 17 year old son, Stefan, who is playing his first...
Opening balance: £393.96p
Selections:
Cevaer £1.50p e/w 33-1
Dyson (tournament favourite) £1 e/w 16-1
Langer £1 e/w 28-1
Levet £1 e/w 50-1
Brier 50p e/w 22-1
Total stake: £10
Balance after stake: £383.96p
========================================
Result:
Cevaer: =52nd
Dyson: =27th
Langer: =3rd
Levet: =3rd
Brier: =8th
Winnings: £12.90p
Profit / Loss: +£2.90p
Closing balance: £396.86p
Comment: After one of the poorer set of selections in last weeks tournament, to one of the best tournaments "Twenty Six" has had, although a clear example of why ACTUAL betting on golf doesn't pay - even when you win!
"TwentySix" chose 5 golfers, 3 of which finished in the top 8, 2 of which finished equal 3rd, and at odds of 50-1 (Levet) and 28-1 (Langer), this SHOULD have meant a decent return.
The trouble is that whilst Langer and Levet finished tied for third place, 3 others did also, on 8 under, which meant the next place taken on the leaderboard was eighth place (one of our picks also - Brier at 7 under).
Let me show you "the math".
Levet came 3rd at 50-1 £1 e/w.
The odds of a place bet are always ONE QUARTER the starting price to win in golf.
The formula for return is (odds x stake)+stake
So the return SHOULD HAVE BEEN (50/4 x 1)+1=£13.50p
BUT, because an each-way bet is generally only down to FIFTH place, the return is less than that, because altough Levet finished 3rd, he effectively also finished joint 7th as well, as he finished tied on a score which 4 others finished on also, ie 3rd and 4th and 5th and 6th and 7th.
THEREFORE the ACTUAL return is 3/5 x return, ie 3rd,4th,5th/3rd,4th,5th,6th,7th x return,
so in Levet's case, ACTUAL RETURN= 3/5x£13.50p = £8.10p
(And in Langer's case its 3/5x £8 = £4.80p
Do you see the injustice in this?! 156 golfers, we pick 5, 2 of which finish 3rd at odds of 28-1 and 50-1 and we get peanuts back...
This has happened to me in real life once, when I bet real money on Soren Kjeldsen at Wentworth a few years ago at huge odds. He came joint 5th and was expecting a bumper payback, until the kindly bookie (grrr!) explained to me that he finished joint 5th with about 5 other people, so my return was 1/5 what I thought it would be!
Anyway, enough of the injustices of betting on golf - Ross Fisher won this (The Dutch or KLM Open) tournament this year, after a "stewards enquiry". Hacks have been talking Ross up all year, saying he'd win something sooner rather than later, and hey, they were right - this is Ross's first win on the European tour.
Good to see Langer back in the groove again, after his kidney-stone op, and enforced 3 week lay off. Very bad to see his son struggle massively - I think he scored the SECOND WORST ROUND EVER ON THE EUROPEAN TOUR in the first round, with a score of TWENTY EIGHT OVER! ( I think Mark James holds the record with a score of over 100, if I remember correctly, but also if I remember correctly, he was playing through a bout of dysentry (or something) at the time of that round)! Stefan Langer improved to score Twenty-One over in the second round, to finish plumb last at FORTY-NINE OVER, and miss the cut by 49 strokes.
The Langers NEARLY had the unfortunate? record of having father and son play the same event, with father winning it and son coming last!
(I'm told Bernhard knew Stefan would struggle, as he's been tinkering with his swing - blimey, that's some tinkering - I'm pretty sure I could have beaten him with that score!)
Anyway, a small profit for "TwentySix", which is always better than a slap round the face with a wet halibut...
We're off to Gleneagles next... see you there.
Thursday, August 16, 2007
29. THE SCANDANAVIAN MASTERS ARLANDASTAD GC STOCKHOLM 16-19 AUGUST 07
No time for an in depth preview this week, grapple fans, as I'm just back from Kephalonia and am writing up that elsewhere.
This is a new course anyway, so no course form to go on, and disappointingly enough, a lot of big names have pulled out after last week's USPGA - people like Stenson, Fasth, Petersson, Bjorn and Anders Hansen - although the huge purse for the Greensboro in the states probably had something to do with that.
So.... just the selections then.
Opening balance: £404.96p
Selections:
PELLE EDBERG £1.50p e/w 28-1
PETER HANSON £1 e/w 20-1
PARNEVIK £1 e/w 25-1
DALY £1 e/w 50-1
LEVET £1 e/w 40-1
Stake: £11
Balance after stake: £393.96p
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Result:
Edberg m/c
Hanson =12th
Parnevik =43rd
Daly m/c
Levet m/c
Winnings: £0
Profit/loss: -£11
Closing balance: £393.96p
Comment: A very disappointing return to the fray for "Twenty-Six". Pelle Edberg, who has had his best season to date, (by MILES), may well be feeling knackered I suppose by now, and missed the cut, as did John "The Wild thang" Daly, as did the scary-eyed Thomas Levet.
Jesper Parnevik (who I saw from about 6' away at the Open Qualification tournament at Sunningdale a few years ago, hit a miraculous shot from heavy heather, approximately 200yards to the centre of a tight green - a shot that I'll remember forever), struggled on home turf - maybe suffering from a wee bit of jetlag, after playing almost ALL of his golf on the US tour these days. The highest place "Twenty-Six" got was 12th, with a player who SHOULD be knocking on the door week in, week out - Peter Hanson.
So, all in all, very poor.
Miko Ilonen won his second tournament of the season (he won at Jakarta earlier in the year remember), which has given his Ryder Cup chances a big boost, and no mistake.
NB. I saw Ilonen CERTAINLY cheat at Wentworth a few years back in a bunker on the first par 5 - he improved his lie with no-one looking (it was only me and a couple of mates at that hole at that time, standing over the bunker), so its fair to say that Ilonen is not one of my favourite players on tour. We should have reported it, but we didn't really know how, and we were there to have a laugh anyway, not go around "curtain twitching" and taking notes...
We are certainly in the back end of the season now. There are ELEVEN tournaments left if I finsh on the Volvo masters at Valderrama, or twelve if I finish on the World Cup at Mission Hills in November, and that will be that.
I need a miracle now to make an overall profit - a handful of big outsider wins, but you never know...
NB. For your information, last week the Racing Post's GOLF GENIUS tournament finished. A sort-of Fantasy Golf competition for the season if you like. A very good last tournament from me (The US Open) where I picked the winner (Woods) AND second (Woody Austin) made me finish in a very respectah-boww-lll 85th position out of 7,500 entrants - thats in the top 1% by my reckoning....
Not bad eh?!
This is a new course anyway, so no course form to go on, and disappointingly enough, a lot of big names have pulled out after last week's USPGA - people like Stenson, Fasth, Petersson, Bjorn and Anders Hansen - although the huge purse for the Greensboro in the states probably had something to do with that.
So.... just the selections then.
Opening balance: £404.96p
Selections:
PELLE EDBERG £1.50p e/w 28-1
PETER HANSON £1 e/w 20-1
PARNEVIK £1 e/w 25-1
DALY £1 e/w 50-1
LEVET £1 e/w 40-1
Stake: £11
Balance after stake: £393.96p
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Result:
Edberg m/c
Hanson =12th
Parnevik =43rd
Daly m/c
Levet m/c
Winnings: £0
Profit/loss: -£11
Closing balance: £393.96p
Comment: A very disappointing return to the fray for "Twenty-Six". Pelle Edberg, who has had his best season to date, (by MILES), may well be feeling knackered I suppose by now, and missed the cut, as did John "The Wild thang" Daly, as did the scary-eyed Thomas Levet.
Jesper Parnevik (who I saw from about 6' away at the Open Qualification tournament at Sunningdale a few years ago, hit a miraculous shot from heavy heather, approximately 200yards to the centre of a tight green - a shot that I'll remember forever), struggled on home turf - maybe suffering from a wee bit of jetlag, after playing almost ALL of his golf on the US tour these days. The highest place "Twenty-Six" got was 12th, with a player who SHOULD be knocking on the door week in, week out - Peter Hanson.
So, all in all, very poor.
Miko Ilonen won his second tournament of the season (he won at Jakarta earlier in the year remember), which has given his Ryder Cup chances a big boost, and no mistake.
NB. I saw Ilonen CERTAINLY cheat at Wentworth a few years back in a bunker on the first par 5 - he improved his lie with no-one looking (it was only me and a couple of mates at that hole at that time, standing over the bunker), so its fair to say that Ilonen is not one of my favourite players on tour. We should have reported it, but we didn't really know how, and we were there to have a laugh anyway, not go around "curtain twitching" and taking notes...
We are certainly in the back end of the season now. There are ELEVEN tournaments left if I finsh on the Volvo masters at Valderrama, or twelve if I finish on the World Cup at Mission Hills in November, and that will be that.
I need a miracle now to make an overall profit - a handful of big outsider wins, but you never know...
NB. For your information, last week the Racing Post's GOLF GENIUS tournament finished. A sort-of Fantasy Golf competition for the season if you like. A very good last tournament from me (The US Open) where I picked the winner (Woods) AND second (Woody Austin) made me finish in a very respectah-boww-lll 85th position out of 7,500 entrants - thats in the top 1% by my reckoning....
Not bad eh?!
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