THE GRAND NATIONAL. FYI.

As promised... more on this year's Grand National, to be run on my birthday, Sat April 14th.

Now, as we all know, if you put 40 hulking great horses in a race, with a load of bloody great fences, the result is indeed a lottery, and you might as well resort to pin-sticking to pick the winner.

BUT

And it's a big but. There are MANY horses in the list of entries and indeed the final list of 40 starters that can be IMMEDIATELY ruled out. Even if they stay on their feet, they WILL NOT WIN!

SO

A lottery it still is, but a lottery where you can dramatically improve your chances of winning, or if you like, NOT losing!

If like my mother and I, you buy the Racing Post around this time of year, (the important one came a few wednesdays ago with regards to The National), you will know what I mean, just by looking at the Grand National Trends. I'm sure there will be websites devoted to these also - use Google.

Age. Class. ( RP rating). Topspeed. Weight. Races entered or taken part in. Stamina.
They ALL point to one type of horse.

No horse with an age of less than 8, (9 preferably) will win The National.
No horse with an RPR of less than 137 will win The National.
No horse carrying more than 11st 5lb will win the National. *
No horse starting at >40-1 in the antepost market will win The National.
No horse who hasn't won at least a £17,000 race beforehand will win The National.
Race day favourite VERY rarely wins The National.
No horse that runs or does well at Cheltenham will win The National.**

*This is constantly getting less reliable as the Handicap becomes more and more compressed, year after year. It used to be absolutely foolproof.

**This year this is less important as there is a slightly bigger gap between the Festival and Aintree, but it's often a VERY GOOD pointer to pick a horse that DOESN'T RUN at Cheltenham...

Get a list of the entries, and using the points above and cross out most of the entries.

I have bet on The National since 1989, when I "won" on 33-1 shot Little Polvier. Since then, I admit, my record has been patchy. My best win came a few years ago (1994 I think) when I had the FIRST and SECOND over the line with Minnehoma and Just So. Last year, Anna and I bet together for the first time - we won a nice sum on Numbersixvalverde and therefore have a 100% strike rate at present.
The female members of my family especially my mother and Jacqueline (with her 'inside' knowledge) seem to win every year though!

I HAVE been known to pick the horse that falls at the first (me and Anna also bet on Innox last year which did just that), and it was my horse (Brown Windsor if I remember correctly) that famously got his nose caught in the tape a few years ago, causing the 'void race' which Esha Ness (Mum's bet) "didn't win".

I'm going to give you the THREE HORSES that I'm looking at, at present. In no particular order.
But you might want to ignore all this, and follow the most recent and possibly the most important trend, i.e. The horse that WILL WIN The National will be IRISH TRAINED and specifically laid out for this race. (lightly exposed). Dun Doire and Point Barrow fit this bill.

The Three horses that I'm considering at the moment... are...

(bear in mind, that one of these horses will just stand on the start line and refuse to go anywhere, one will certainly be the first to fall - my speciality - but bettable on at bookmakers these days, and the other horse will win!)

The three horses are.... in no order...

NIL DESPERANDUM

LIBERTHINE

KELAMI

You heard it here first!
I will add more Grand National Posts as and when...

7. "JOHNNIE WALKER CLASSIC", Blue Canyon GC, Phuket Thailand. 1-4 March, 2007

Ok. After last week in USA, we travel across the globe, to Phuket, Thailand, where this year's Johnnie Walker Classic is being held. The Blue Canyon Golf Course hasn't seen competitive action like this since 1998, so course form students have nothing recent to go on.
The field is strong though, with 156 players lining up on the first tee, a field that includes Els (6-1F), Goosen, Scott, Scott, Casey, Jaidee, Weir and Montgomerie heading the rest in the market.
It's a strong course also, with two of the best par 3s in Asia, water on ten of the holes, and a monster 600yd 11th hole. As with most Asian tournaments, humidity, electrical storms and rain delays will prove 'interesting' to the competitors, but shouldn't overly bother regulars playing the Asian tour or Asian events of the European tour.
In 2004 I made a handsome 'virtual profit' on Boonchu Ruangkit at 100-1 in this event, and doesn't "26" need a repeat of that this week?!

As for the selections- Goosen has fond memories of this course, (before he'd won his two US opens), is playing well, and did not have to knacker himself in th WGC last week, losing in the second round.
Montgomerie fits the bill for exactly the same reasons as Goosen, and enjoys playing in Asia. (Don't know why though - with his greasy man boobs, you'd think he'd find it very uncomfortable and sweat like a hog on heat).
The Asians are bound to feature, but let's stick with class and continue with Jaidee. He's yet to feature in the frame this year - so we'll give him another chance in his home country where he's a hero.
The Indian Shiv Kapur, second last time out and maybe a wee bit unlucky, has a classic swing and could go well here, so we'll include him.
Lastly, the young Wentworth improver Ross Fisher (after being told by Woods he could "go all the way" after partnering him in Dubai) may believe that, and continue his good form.
I'm ruling out Els (solid but not fantastic start to the year and no value), Casey (must be knackered after playing five rounds last week and no course form), Scott (either brilliant or awful) and Weir (a spent force these days until Augusta comes round!).
I certainly would not rule out Dyson again though, or the possibility of another Asian stalwart (but not really known over here) such as Ruangkit, to overturn the bigger stars and make off with the booty.

[NB. (short odds) 'Bet of the Week' (NOT included in the "26" balance) is probably a speculative punt on a first round 3-ball group. The one that looks most appealing is the 2-1 price you can get on Terry Pilkadaris to beat his playing partners, Paul Lawrie (6-4) and Quiros (13-8). I have no idea why Pilkadaris is the LEAST fancied in this 3 ball 18 hole bet. Lawrie and Quiros haven't been playing that well and have both missed the cut last time out. Terry Pilkadaris has been playing the Asian Tour since 2002 (he's Australian by birth), and although he possibly peaked in 2004, he's still playing well, must have course experience and is 31st at he moment in the race for the Asian Order of Merit title. This 2-1 bet looks like a banker in my eyes! I'll mention the outcome of this when the tournament is over, and I type the actual selection results...]



Current balance: £455.50p


SELECTIONS:

Montgomerie £1.50p e/w 33-1
Goosen £2 to win 9-1
Fisher £1 e/w 100-1
Jaidee 50p e/w 33-1
Shiv Kapur 50p e/w 66-1

Stake: £9
Balance after stake (pre-tournament): £446.50p


RESULT:

MONTGOMERIE - R1: 19th, R2: 11th, R3: 6th, FINAL POS’N: =6th
GOOSEN - R1: 10th, R2: 3rd, R3: 5th, FINAL POS’N: 4th
FISHER - R1: 130th, R2: 136th, m/c
JAIDEE - R1: 44th, R2: 11th, R3: 39th, FINAL POS’N: =52nd
KAPUR - R1: 73rd, R2: 32nd, R3: 58th, FINAL POS'N: =60th

WINNINGS: £0
PROFIT/LOSS: -£9

BALANCE AFTER TOURNAMENT: £446.50p


COMMENT: First things first - the (short odds) 'Bet of the Week' triumphed majestically. A "Banker" (quote) it most certainly was: Terry Pilkidaris scored -2 in his first round 3 ball. His playing partners scored +2 (Paul Lawrie) and +5(Alvaro Quiros). Thems may not have been long odds at 2-1, but a nice 'win against the bookies' as all bookies gave (the more famous (major winner) Paul Lawrie) favouritism in that 3 ball. Check out my "ADMIN" and "SPORTS BETS" posts for the location details of future 'bets of the week' - which will be mentioned separately from the main golf tips from now on...
Anyway... as that 'Bet of the Week' did NOT count as far as "26" is concerned (shame), what about the 72 hole tournament proper?
Well... the pattern continues I'm afraid! Goosen at the end of the second round was odds-on to win the tournament, having made a very solid start and being the only 'big name' at the top of the leaderboard. He actually led during the first part of the third round, then collapsed. A fightback of sorts in the final round had him finish in 4th place - just out of the moolah as far as "26" was concerned, due to a win bet, not an e/w bet. Are we learning a lesson here?
Montgomerie played solidly for all four rounds, but finished 1 stroke and 1 place out of the wonga as far as we were concerned. He finished at 8 under par, in equal 6th place - a score of 9 under par would have had him in equal 5th (with Mike Weir - who we'd written off as a 'spent force before Augusta' before the tournament), and would have made "26" a little return on a 33-1 e/w bet.
Jaidee seemed to play ok until the weekend, where scores of 74 and 75 made him slide back down the leaderboard. Shiv Kapur was up and down like a yo-yo, and looked like he was going to miss the cut midway through the second round, but managed to at least play four rounds, I suppose.
As for Ross Fisher - the least said the better - he never got going and missed the halfway cut by a country mile!
The tournament was eventually won by 20 year old Johannesburg resident Anton Haig, in a playoff versus his fellow South African Richard Sterne, and Englishman Oliver Wilson. This was Haig's first tournament win, and what with Els finishing well, in equal 6th place, the end leaderboard was full of South Africans - Haig, Sterne, Goosen and Els, all finishing in the top 6 places (or equal 6th).

I hope this pattern doesn't continue for much longer - we are getting excellent 'runs for our money', every week it seems, but little or no return.
On to the Singapore Masters next week at "The Laguna G&CC", which may be luckier for me - as at least I've been to the city in person!

6. WGC (1) The Gallery GC, Tuscon, Arizona (USA) Matchplay format. 21-25 Feb 2007

To the first of the 'World Golf Championships', the Accenture WGC held not as previously, (La Costa, Carlsbad, CA), but at The Gallery, Dove Mt, AZ, over FIVE days.
As we all know, the real World Golf Championship Matchplay event is held at Wentworth's West course, later in the year, but this tournament does look quite interesting...

Woods is obviously the hot favourite at around 7-2 against, is well rested having mssed the Nissan Open, and is effectively going for his EIGHTH tour win on the bounce - absolutely incredible. He has a fine WGC record, but literally anything can happen in Matchplay format, and usually does.

Because this years event is staged at a new venue, in the desert, if your putter is hot, you'll win, so predicting a winner is somewhat difficult.
The draw has a lot to do with picking a winner also, and the top 3 in anybody's book (Woods, Mickleson and Els) are all in one side of the draw, giving the field a somewhat lopsided look.

Other names to consider are Jim Furyk, who has started the season magnificently and is the current world number 2; Retief Goosen, who has received a "nice draw" but played badly last week, and any number of Europeans, who seem to prefer the Matchplay format more than the Americans do. No European is quoted at less than 28-1, strange, in my opinion!

The WGC really does seem to be a wee bit of a lottery, but there is one man who possibly stands out from the crowd. Step forward Paul Casey at 40-1. Already a winner this year at Abu Dhabi, a winner of the 'real' world matchplay at Wentworth last year, an ex- Scottsdale resident and desert specialist AND a fancier of this new venue, having been on two 'recons' recently. I think he fancies his chances and represents great value at 40s.
(Although value is often 'over-rated' - look at last weeks selections!)
Phil Mickleson is another desert specialist, and has two wins at this course already. He also seems very, very confident with his driver at present.
John Rollins is an outsider on a hot streak at the moment, so he's another outsider (why not in a lottery?) included in the selections.
Finally, Aaron Baddeley, (nickname "Dress Badly" on tour, thanks to his outrageous shirts and dress 'sense'), another winner this year and another 'desert fox' makes up the list...

Field:64

Current balance: £461.50p

SELECTIONS:
CASEY £2 e/w 40-1
MICKLESON £1 to win 14-1
BADDELEY 50p to win 80-1
ROLLINS 50 to win 80-1

Total Stake: £6
Balance after stake (pre-tournament): £455.50p


RESULT: Paul Casey NEARLY made "26" a profit this week, and looked very good until the Quarter Final. If he HAD beaten Geoff Ogilvy (last years winner) in the QF, "26" would have made AT LEAST a £22 (and possibly a £100) return off a £6 stake. Unfortunately for us, he was beaten 5&4 and the interest (as far as "26" was concerned) ended there.

Henrik Stenson, who has already won a big tournament this year, (in the Dubai Desert Classic - remember?), won the this tournament, by beating Geoff Ogilvy in the 36hole final. Trevor Immelman came 3rd, after beating Chad Campbell.
This means the last FOUR events in the European Tour have been won by Scandanavians - Henson, Hedblom, Ilonen and now Stenson again. At this rate, the long, straight-hitting Stenson will have th Order of Merit Title sewn up before Wentworth in May, for he is simply having the season of his life at the moment. What price Stenson for the Masters? Very short probably, and deservedly so...

WINNINGS: £0
PROFIT/LOSS: -£6

BALANCE AFTER TOURNAMENT: £455.50p


COMMENT: At first glance, it might be tempting to bet (for real) on this tournament, as the field is only 64 strong (instead of the normal 120 or so) and the bookies still pay out 1/4 the odds on places 1-4, (1-5 for a "normal" tournament).
Don't be fooled by this though. 18 hole matchplay golf is a different game to 72 hole strokeplay golf, and more of a short sprint. Anything can happen on any one particular day (it invariably does), mistakes are magnified because of the shortened nature of the format and there is no real time to recover from any mistakes. It was a shame that Casey couldn't win his QF match Vs Ogilvy and make "26" some profit, but no great surprise.
"26" seems to be forming a pattern here, some good runs for our "money" but very little return as yet!
It will come.... we just need to be patient!

The next tournament for the EPGA and "26" will mean a return to Asia; Phuket, Thailand to be precise, and "The Johnnie Walker Classic".

THE GRAND NATIONAL. FYI.

As the weights for the Grand National were published last wednesday, as it is being run on my birthday (14th April) this year, and as I DO like this horse-race, a lot, I will include a few posts and tips on this wonderful race VERY SOON, when I get a moment.
Just to warn you....!
Watch this space...

5. INDONESIAN OPEN. Damai Indah GC, Jakarta. 15-18th Feb 2007

Once again, I will deal with this tournament in a brief manner, having been offline for it.
The Damai Indah Golf Club is near the coast, in a traditionally dry area, but like so many courses around this part of the world, can be (and usually is) subject to violent afternoon electrical storms.
Simon Dyson is the defending champion (at Emeralda, Jakarta), and it was interesting to note that the often very good 'Teletext Sports Tipping service, (ITV text p580 in case you're interested) tipped Meesawat to have a 'PROMinent win' for Jakarta. It was also interesting to note that Dyson was favourite for this event, followed closely in the market by Jaidee and Meesawat - all tipped LAST week!

This week 5 bets totalling a £10 stake.

Dyson promised he felt good and and the man to beat in Asia, so he was included AGAIN in the selections, along with Meesawat.
Iggy Garrido (who I witnessed at the 18th green to take the Volvo PGA at Wentworth a few years ago) was selected due to his current good form. 3rd alongside Dyson in Malaysia after starting with a horrible 76, bodes well, as does his 18th in Dubai, in a world class field.
Oliver Fisher was also selected, the youngest player ever to book his place on the EPGA tour by finishing a wonderful 5th at Qualifying School last November. This kid is much hyped - and is said to be (with time) the best British Golf Prodigy since Nick Faldo. He may be underrated at 50-1 having made two cuts out of two in his rookie season so far, and finishing a very solid 11th, last time out, 3 weeks ago.
The last selection was Edward Rush, a Qualifying School Graduate who flourished in South Africa - 6th in the Joburg Open and 11th in The Dunhill Championship.
He's coached by Michael 'Cambo' Campbell's mentor, Jonathan Yarwood at East Sussex, and this 27 year old produced a gutsy eagle-birdie finish to secure his tour card in November. Possibly underrated at 100-1?

Selections:

Balance before stake: £471.50p

Oliver Fisher £1.50p e/w 50-1
Prom Meesawat £1 e/w 18-1
Ignacio Garrido £1 e/w 33-1
Simon Dyson £1.50p to win 17-2F
Edward Rush 75p e/w 100-1

Stake : £10
Balance after stake: £461.50p

Result:
Mikko Ilonen* became the first Finn to win any tournament in the 'International leg' of the EPGA tour this week, thanks in part, to a horrible double bogie near the end by Frankie Minoza from the Phillipines, who'd been leading all through round 4. This means the last three EPGA events have been won by Scandinavians! (Henson, Hedblom and Ilonen. Must be something in their Rollmops...)

*[ I was watching ANOTHER Volvo PGA at Wentworth with a few friends a year or so ago, and we watched at VERY close quarters, (hidden from most spectators and certainly the TV) Mikko Ilonen 'Improve his lie' (cheat) considerably in a greenside bunker at the 4th. I didn't think pros did that sort of thing!]


And as for my selections....
The worst week this year so far.
Edward Rush started like a donkey with a 77 and missed the cut by some way. Meesawat, Garrido and Fisher all finished at +1 which gave them all a share of 33rd place. Dyson left it late and finished 11th at -2.
As I said, the worst week so far. Must be due for a win at the WGC this week!

Winnings: £0
Profit/loss : -£10

Balance before Tuscon: £461.50p

4. MALAYSIAN OPEN. Saujana G&CC. 8-11 Feb 2007

Now that I'm back online, I will deal with the last two tournaments in Asia, (the International part of the EPGA tour) in a very brief manner, and prepare for the first WGC event of the year, which I'll treat as normal.

Selections for the Malaysian Open at Saujana were as follows:

LEE WESTWOOD £2 e/w 18-1
SIMON DYSON £1 e/w 25-1
JAIDEE £1.50p to win 8-1F
PROM MEESAWAT 75p e/w 40-1

Jaidee was a very strong favourite for the Malaysian Open, having won it and come 2nd very recently, and being in very solid form recently. Strangely though, he played very badly and missed the cut - saying afterwards he was knackered with all the tournaments recently, crossing time-zones etc... and promised to be back to his best in Jakarta, once his body clock had re-adjusted with this weekend off.
The (once again) newly "light-weight" Westwood played poorly and finished well down the field and Meesawat after briefly threatening the top of the leaderboard, finished just out of the money as far as 26 was concerned in a very solid 7th place.
26 DID "clean-up" with DYSON though, hur hur.
He didn't win - that honour went to Peter Hedblom, but he did come 3rd at 25-1, making 26 a small £7.25p e/w return.
After the event, a frustrated Dyson, who thrives in the Asian leg of the tour (and was a winner of the Asian Order of Merit not so long ago), said he should have won by a few. He played well enough, but didn't sink a putt all weekend. This may have been selective memory on Dyson's part though, as TWO visits to the water in two holes and two sixes where others were taking four, proved he probably didn't really deserve to win.
Never mind - another small each/way return for 26!

Stake:£10
Balance after stake: £464.25p
Winnings: £7.25p (DYSON 3rd, £1 e/w at 25-1)
Profit/Loss : -£2.75p

Balance at end of tournament, before Jakarta : £471.50p