Difficult this one.
Despite a big purse, big names are pulling out of the French Open this year, Fasth and Ollie, the latest to withdraw.
Combine that with a bad weather forecast all week AND a history of this tournament producing shock three-figured odds winners, and maybe all this week will be for "26" is a speculative shot in the dark?
Le Golf National is a stadium course on the outskirts of Paris and has staged the French Open since 1991 (with 2 exceptions). Bentgrass greens, many bunkers and water hazards will test the field of 156 this week, and we should concentrate on accuracy rather than power I think...
Opening Balance: £427.38p
Selections:
A.Hansen £1 e/w 20-1
Green £1 e/w 18-1(f)
Dredge £1 e/w 20-1
Remesy 50p e/w 66-1
Dougherty 50p e/w 33-1
Stake: £8
Balance after stake: £419.38p
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Result:
Hansen m/c
Green m/c
Dredge =10th
Remesy m/c
Dougherty =25th
Winnings: £0
Profit/Loss: -£8
Closing Balance: £419.38p
Comment: The worst week so far for "Twenty-Six". Only Dredge who finished equal tenth and Dougherty spared our blushes and he only finished 25th. Green et al missed the cut by miles! (This was a bit of a shot in the dark though, as suggested at the staking plan).
Graeme Storm did enough to win a high scoring event in poor weather, with two Danes - Soren Hansen (I only went and selected the wrong Hansen then eh?) and Thomas Bjorn both making a welcome? return to form - as, I suppose, did Colon Montgomerie.
On to next week methinks... and the less said about this week the better.
Wednesday, June 27, 2007
Monday, June 25, 2007
OUTSIDE PUNT AT WIMBELDON?
End of June.
That means rain then.
And Glastonbury.
And more rain.
And Wimbledon.
This year at leafy SW19, I don't suppose you should really look further than Johan Edfors, sorry, Roger Federer to claim yet another Mens singles title. Boring it may be, but watching him play on grass is like watching a ballet dancer at work - grace at its highest (unbobtainable for most mortals) level.
That said, he hasn't had a great build up, and I suppose is as vulnerable as he's been for a few years, I don't THINK he's played a competitive match on grass since last year's final, and he was injured for the warm-up tournaments this week.
Our hero, Andy "the gob" Murray has (like I suggested on another blog, some time ago) pulled out with his wrist injury (uh huh Andy... how dya get that then), so that leaves Roddick (the Queens winner this year- beaten by Murray at last years "Wimbers"), Nadal and Hewitt as Federer's main rivals?
Or does it?
I've always supported the "Vitches" of Vimbledon - Slobodan Zivojiinivic, Goran Ivanisovic (who won the greatest final ever in my opinion (even better than Borg Vs Mcenroe) - that Monday epic versus Pat Rafter, remember?) and now Ivan Karlovic - the 7' freaky monster-alien-stick-insect-she-woman-cat-type-thing from Croatia.
Karlovic, just "down" to his height really, has one mother-fucking bitch of an advantage at Wimbledon, as do the goofy-footers (left handers).
He has already beaten Hewitt at Wimbledon a few years ago - remember those brilliant photos at the net, as their game finished, with Karlovic literally standing almost TWO FEET taller than the little Hewitt!!!
Well.... if the matches all run to form (seedings-wise), I think Karlovic is due to meet Hewitt again in the fourth round. (I think). Then, should he sneak that one, his next problem may well be the Argentine David Nalbandyrandyandypandyian, a finalist in his own right some years ago.
These two are class players, no bones about it, but I'd like the "Croatian Freak show" to whup their asses reeeeall goood.
At 50-1, I don't suppose you'll get better value for money during the fortnight.
By the way. Anyone know what's happened to "Arse Willy-poo-piss" (Mark Phillipousis)?
Guess he must have retired some time ago, the lumbering greek (aussie) get.
What is a certainty however, is that (looking at the weather forecast), rain will mean endless delays (the roof on centre court cannot come quickly enough in my opinion), and we may even have another "people's monday"?!!
But - if the BBC decide to show Cliff having a sing-along with Cilla, during a rain-break on centre court again, I will ram two knitting needles in my ears and scoop my eyes out with a rusty spoon...
As for t' laydeez.
Who cares.
They're all virtually men anyway.
Gone are the days of the frilly underwear and soft yet urgent, pleading moaning.
Gone are Steffi's perfick legs, (yes, I know facially she looked like the love-child of Barry Manilow and "Digby", the biggest dog in the world- a paper bag would fix that), and gone are Gabriela Sabbatini's sweaty, dusky thighs.
I always fancied Gigi Fernandez mesel, until I looked closer, saw her sporting a very large handlebar-moustache and then found out she was another lesbian...! (Quelle surprise - I blame Billie Jean King and Martina Never-had-a-sofa).
I might watch the odd game, searching for another Hantuchova. (Then my hand might take over), but I'm not holding my breath (unlike Michael Hutchence), and I know its been said before, but what was the obsession with "Anna Horny-Leg-over"? She DID look like Boris Yeltsin, you know!
There was another fit-nar (Haagen good-arse) Swedish filly tennis player I remember drooling over in the past. Someone "Qvist". Can't remember her name now... aw well.
Now all we've got is hairy, muscular shrieking lady-boys. No thankyou.
Pat Cash was right. (for once).
Have a good fortnight watching that WANKER, the constanly blinking, pink-eyelashed Nazi Womble (Becker) and the two orange dwarfs (Sue Barker and John Inverdale) (though I can't be too hard on John - he's a Bristol Rugby fan) dissect the games on the highlights show..., though it still isn't the same without Dan Maskell doing the match commentary.
"Oh I say....! What a peach".
NB. 27/06/07 Two days later and I see my outside tip for Wimbledon, IVO KARLOVIC has fallen at the first hurdle!
Great big lanky get.
That means rain then.
And Glastonbury.
And more rain.
And Wimbledon.
This year at leafy SW19, I don't suppose you should really look further than Johan Edfors, sorry, Roger Federer to claim yet another Mens singles title. Boring it may be, but watching him play on grass is like watching a ballet dancer at work - grace at its highest (unbobtainable for most mortals) level.
That said, he hasn't had a great build up, and I suppose is as vulnerable as he's been for a few years, I don't THINK he's played a competitive match on grass since last year's final, and he was injured for the warm-up tournaments this week.
Our hero, Andy "the gob" Murray has (like I suggested on another blog, some time ago) pulled out with his wrist injury (uh huh Andy... how dya get that then), so that leaves Roddick (the Queens winner this year- beaten by Murray at last years "Wimbers"), Nadal and Hewitt as Federer's main rivals?
Or does it?
I've always supported the "Vitches" of Vimbledon - Slobodan Zivojiinivic, Goran Ivanisovic (who won the greatest final ever in my opinion (even better than Borg Vs Mcenroe) - that Monday epic versus Pat Rafter, remember?) and now Ivan Karlovic - the 7' freaky monster-alien-stick-insect-she-woman-cat-type-thing from Croatia.
Karlovic, just "down" to his height really, has one mother-fucking bitch of an advantage at Wimbledon, as do the goofy-footers (left handers).
He has already beaten Hewitt at Wimbledon a few years ago - remember those brilliant photos at the net, as their game finished, with Karlovic literally standing almost TWO FEET taller than the little Hewitt!!!
Well.... if the matches all run to form (seedings-wise), I think Karlovic is due to meet Hewitt again in the fourth round. (I think). Then, should he sneak that one, his next problem may well be the Argentine David Nalbandyrandyandypandyian, a finalist in his own right some years ago.
These two are class players, no bones about it, but I'd like the "Croatian Freak show" to whup their asses reeeeall goood.
At 50-1, I don't suppose you'll get better value for money during the fortnight.
By the way. Anyone know what's happened to "Arse Willy-poo-piss" (Mark Phillipousis)?
Guess he must have retired some time ago, the lumbering greek (aussie) get.
What is a certainty however, is that (looking at the weather forecast), rain will mean endless delays (the roof on centre court cannot come quickly enough in my opinion), and we may even have another "people's monday"?!!
But - if the BBC decide to show Cliff having a sing-along with Cilla, during a rain-break on centre court again, I will ram two knitting needles in my ears and scoop my eyes out with a rusty spoon...
As for t' laydeez.
Who cares.
They're all virtually men anyway.
Gone are the days of the frilly underwear and soft yet urgent, pleading moaning.
Gone are Steffi's perfick legs, (yes, I know facially she looked like the love-child of Barry Manilow and "Digby", the biggest dog in the world- a paper bag would fix that), and gone are Gabriela Sabbatini's sweaty, dusky thighs.
I always fancied Gigi Fernandez mesel, until I looked closer, saw her sporting a very large handlebar-moustache and then found out she was another lesbian...! (Quelle surprise - I blame Billie Jean King and Martina Never-had-a-sofa).
I might watch the odd game, searching for another Hantuchova. (Then my hand might take over), but I'm not holding my breath (unlike Michael Hutchence), and I know its been said before, but what was the obsession with "Anna Horny-Leg-over"? She DID look like Boris Yeltsin, you know!
There was another fit-nar (Haagen good-arse) Swedish filly tennis player I remember drooling over in the past. Someone "Qvist". Can't remember her name now... aw well.
Now all we've got is hairy, muscular shrieking lady-boys. No thankyou.
Pat Cash was right. (for once).
Have a good fortnight watching that WANKER, the constanly blinking, pink-eyelashed Nazi Womble (Becker) and the two orange dwarfs (Sue Barker and John Inverdale) (though I can't be too hard on John - he's a Bristol Rugby fan) dissect the games on the highlights show..., though it still isn't the same without Dan Maskell doing the match commentary.
"Oh I say....! What a peach".
NB. 27/06/07 Two days later and I see my outside tip for Wimbledon, IVO KARLOVIC has fallen at the first hurdle!
Great big lanky get.
Wednesday, June 20, 2007
23. BMW INTERNATIONAL. NORD-EICHENRIED, MUNICH 21-24 JUNE 07
After last weeks US Open, back to reality now, and a MUCH easier golf course - Nord-Eichenried, which has staged this event for years and years. Big wide fairways, straightforward flat greens and a long-hitters paradise, this course was somewhat toughened up last year by growing up the rough and adding a few bunkers here and there.
The BMW International always seems to produce a top drawer winner - Stenson, Howell, Jimenez, Westwood, Bjorn, Daly and Montgomerie to name the last 8 winneres (Bjorn twice), but I'm prepared to dodge the favourites, the household names, this week, after last weeks mammoth efforts at Oakmont.
So, I'll leave Els, Casey and Stenson, and look further down the book...
Value of the week has to be Raphael Jacquelin, who seems to be in the form of his life, and value seems to be a theme in my selections - possibly overlooked by the bookies this week...
Opening Balance: £426.63p
Selections:
JACQUELIN £2 e/w 33-1
A.CANIZARES £1 e/w 50-1
A.ROMERO £1 e/w 40-1
GONZALEZ 50p e/w 125-1
ERLANDSSON 50p e/w 80-1
Stake: £10
Balance after Stake: £416.63p
=====================================
RESULT:
Jacquelin - =11th
Canizares - =52nd
Romero - =22nd
Gonzalez - =4th
Erlandsson - =43rd
Winnings: £10.75
Profit/Loss: +75p!!!
Balance after tournament: £427.38p
COMMENT: One of those piss-infuiating weeks I'm afraid, and a CLEAR EXAMPLE of why betting with real money on golf (for the most part, anyway) is a mug's game. Even when you win... you lose!!!
At one point of the proceedings ths week, I thought I was about to complete a clean sweep. All 5 of my selections had made the cut with ease, and ALL were challenging at the top of the leaderboard.
Unfortunately, it was only "Big Ricky Gonzo" (at 125-1 mind) who played well for all 4 rounds - the reason I'd selected him was that he always seems to play well here, no matter what form he'd been in previous to this tournament - a real "horses for courses" selection if there ever was one this week.
Well. He came joint fourth. (But joint fifth and sixth as well). The bookies only pay out on FIVE places on an each-way bet. (Apart from "Jennings Bet" I think, who pay out on six places).
So, instead of winning a tidy profit, we just make 75p profit on the week - even though we predicted a 125-1 place bet and won!
Calculation of winnings shown below...
Odds of R.Gonzalez: 125-1 to win.
Odds of R.Gonzalez to grab a place (top 5): 125-1 /4 = 31.25
Stake: 50p (e/w)
Gonzalez came joint fourth, with 2 other people. These 3 golfers (inc Gonzalez) made up 4th, 5th and 6th place.
Bookies pay to 5th place only.
Therefore, winnings are:
((Place odds x place part of e/w stake)+ place part of e/w stake) x 2/3 (4th and 5th place / NOT 6th place)
((31.25 x 0.5)+0.5)x2/3 = 10.75p
If for example he had STILL finished joint 4th, but with one other golfer instead of 2, ie joint fourth and fifth, our winnings would NOT have to be multiplied by two/thirds (as above), as our man did not finish joint 6th as well as joint 4th and 5th, and we would have made a tidy £6+ profit on a £10 stake.
Understand?!
It happened to me at Wentworth once, with REAL money.
I strolled into the bookies after placing a few squid on Soren Kjeldsen at 150-1 to grab a place in the PGA final leaderboard. I thought I'd won a lot of moolah, as he DID grab a place, a share of fifth though, and as it 'appens, wit about 5 others. I slunk out of that bookies clutching little more than a return of my stake, even though my 150-1 tip had effectively beaten the bookies!
And that is the nature of golf betting my learned friends - unlike a horse race, where there is no real scope at all for dead heats, in golf (once you look past the winner), there is always a dead heat for 2nd, or 3rd, or 4th or even 5th.
The other problem with betting (for real) on golf anyway, is that your average horse race has, what, 15 runners and riders - your average golf tourney has 150+.
The bookies pay out top 3 places in most horse races, and top 5 in all golf tournaments!
You see problem?
They should at LEAST pay out to tenth place in a golf tournament...
Bastards...
AAnnnnyywaaaay....
Niclas Fasth won at Munich. (Even after he toiled away, the week before at Oakmont in the US Open). He's having a very successful (almost un-noticed) season is Niclas...
Right.
French open next week, then the European Open at the K Club, then the Scottish (at one of the most picturesque courses in the world - Loch Lomond), then, and only then...
THE OPEN. At Carnoustie.
(With luck my Dad, who's just gone back to live in Fife for his retirement days, may get to see that on the course).
I can't wait!
The BMW International always seems to produce a top drawer winner - Stenson, Howell, Jimenez, Westwood, Bjorn, Daly and Montgomerie to name the last 8 winneres (Bjorn twice), but I'm prepared to dodge the favourites, the household names, this week, after last weeks mammoth efforts at Oakmont.
So, I'll leave Els, Casey and Stenson, and look further down the book...
Value of the week has to be Raphael Jacquelin, who seems to be in the form of his life, and value seems to be a theme in my selections - possibly overlooked by the bookies this week...
Opening Balance: £426.63p
Selections:
JACQUELIN £2 e/w 33-1
A.CANIZARES £1 e/w 50-1
A.ROMERO £1 e/w 40-1
GONZALEZ 50p e/w 125-1
ERLANDSSON 50p e/w 80-1
Stake: £10
Balance after Stake: £416.63p
=====================================
RESULT:
Jacquelin - =11th
Canizares - =52nd
Romero - =22nd
Gonzalez - =4th
Erlandsson - =43rd
Winnings: £10.75
Profit/Loss: +75p!!!
Balance after tournament: £427.38p
COMMENT: One of those piss-infuiating weeks I'm afraid, and a CLEAR EXAMPLE of why betting with real money on golf (for the most part, anyway) is a mug's game. Even when you win... you lose!!!
At one point of the proceedings ths week, I thought I was about to complete a clean sweep. All 5 of my selections had made the cut with ease, and ALL were challenging at the top of the leaderboard.
Unfortunately, it was only "Big Ricky Gonzo" (at 125-1 mind) who played well for all 4 rounds - the reason I'd selected him was that he always seems to play well here, no matter what form he'd been in previous to this tournament - a real "horses for courses" selection if there ever was one this week.
Well. He came joint fourth. (But joint fifth and sixth as well). The bookies only pay out on FIVE places on an each-way bet. (Apart from "Jennings Bet" I think, who pay out on six places).
So, instead of winning a tidy profit, we just make 75p profit on the week - even though we predicted a 125-1 place bet and won!
Calculation of winnings shown below...
Odds of R.Gonzalez: 125-1 to win.
Odds of R.Gonzalez to grab a place (top 5): 125-1 /4 = 31.25
Stake: 50p (e/w)
Gonzalez came joint fourth, with 2 other people. These 3 golfers (inc Gonzalez) made up 4th, 5th and 6th place.
Bookies pay to 5th place only.
Therefore, winnings are:
((Place odds x place part of e/w stake)+ place part of e/w stake) x 2/3 (4th and 5th place / NOT 6th place)
((31.25 x 0.5)+0.5)x2/3 = 10.75p
If for example he had STILL finished joint 4th, but with one other golfer instead of 2, ie joint fourth and fifth, our winnings would NOT have to be multiplied by two/thirds (as above), as our man did not finish joint 6th as well as joint 4th and 5th, and we would have made a tidy £6+ profit on a £10 stake.
Understand?!
It happened to me at Wentworth once, with REAL money.
I strolled into the bookies after placing a few squid on Soren Kjeldsen at 150-1 to grab a place in the PGA final leaderboard. I thought I'd won a lot of moolah, as he DID grab a place, a share of fifth though, and as it 'appens, wit about 5 others. I slunk out of that bookies clutching little more than a return of my stake, even though my 150-1 tip had effectively beaten the bookies!
And that is the nature of golf betting my learned friends - unlike a horse race, where there is no real scope at all for dead heats, in golf (once you look past the winner), there is always a dead heat for 2nd, or 3rd, or 4th or even 5th.
The other problem with betting (for real) on golf anyway, is that your average horse race has, what, 15 runners and riders - your average golf tourney has 150+.
The bookies pay out top 3 places in most horse races, and top 5 in all golf tournaments!
You see problem?
They should at LEAST pay out to tenth place in a golf tournament...
Bastards...
AAnnnnyywaaaay....
Niclas Fasth won at Munich. (Even after he toiled away, the week before at Oakmont in the US Open). He's having a very successful (almost un-noticed) season is Niclas...
Right.
French open next week, then the European Open at the K Club, then the Scottish (at one of the most picturesque courses in the world - Loch Lomond), then, and only then...
THE OPEN. At Carnoustie.
(With luck my Dad, who's just gone back to live in Fife for his retirement days, may get to see that on the course).
I can't wait!
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
22. U.S.OPEN, OAKMONT, 14-17 JUNE '07
SO....
We arrive at the second Major of the year, the US Open, this year being held at Oakmont Golf Club, outside Pittsburgh, reputably, America's most difficult course - a devilish par 70 hilly layout.
The frankly ridiculous 288yd par 3 eighth, the cough cough, very short, 667yd par 5 twelth, long, punishing rough, 25 yd wide fairways and greens that are slicker than a lubed-up eel (stimpmeter value 13!!!), lie in wait for the hopefuls this week.
Eight over par come sunday may well win the prize, and we (as punters) will have to look for accuracy off the tee, combined with length, and almost certainly a fair amount of experience and PATIENCE, plus the nerves of steel with a flat stick. Difficult? Absolutely. But it looks (on paper anyway) as though this could be a really open Open (if you catch my drift).
A few notes on the golfers heading the market and some longer shots...
WOODS: The hot favourite (of course) at 3-1. Drifting though, no value, and easy to oppose this week. I hear Woods has been struggling to focus during practice, because the tournament is bringing back memories of losing his father at this time last year. Woods has made two visits to Oakmont last week, and has suggested he'll use his driver sparingly- instead opting instead for his now trademark "Stinger (low, punchy) 3 wood" off tight tees. Hard to be enthusiastic about, but as usual, the best golfer in the field - by a country mile.
MICKLESON: Has the game, especially as he's found a driver that he likes, and can hit a long, long way. One concern is his wrist injury - there's no doubt that the fearsome rough at Oakmont will test Lefty's wrist - beware the injured golfer, but maybe Oakmont has just come too soon for Big Phil, or maybe not....?!!!
SINGH: Difficult to get behind the Willowy Fijian, as he is STILL chopping and changing his putters. Belly putter to short. Short to Belly. This week we need a pro who is comfortable with his flat stick, if only to salvage 6-8' par putts. Maybe not VeeJay.
FURYK: Interesting. Very interesting. Experienced. Patient. Straight-hitting. Due one. Possibly a real contender this week.
ELS: Won at Oakmont in 1994 but not playing in the same rich vein of form this year. He would quite literally have to turn his season around to win here, but maybe, just maybe, his memories of 1994 may help him in that quest? Not for me though.
SCOTT: Unlike Els at the moment, in a rich vein of form right now. One to consider, and about time he added to his only real big win so far, the 2004 TPC at Sawgrass.
GOOSEN: Has looked disinterested recently. BUT, (and he is amazed people don't give him credit for this), he is a recent DOUBLE U.S.Open champion, and you ignore the dull South African at your peril!
HARRINGTON: Playing very well at the moment. But prone to errors in big tournaments.
DONALD: Cool, calm, collected. Patient. Striaght as a die. Used to American courses, based in Chicago so used to the Pittsburgh set-ups. Could do well, if he can find some sort of (alien to him) "Killer instinct"...
GARCIA: Has the tee-to green game, but NOT the putting head (he's awful on the dance-floor) and no patience either. I don't think so.
G.OGILVY: Possibilities for last years winner at Winged Foot, and would continue the awful American run in their own open, should he win. But I prefer others...
JOHNSON: Masters winner already this year, and the best American golfer this year, so far. But surely "Gad" can't be on his side at Oakmont AND Augusta, even if he is omnipotent! I think he's got another major in him, but he's not good enough to win two in one year is he? Withdrew from last weeks warm up with a severe throat infection, but ok now, and lies a lofty 4th in the driving accuracy statistics on the tour - imperative here...
STENSON: Real chances. Long, straight and experienced enough. Could Henrik be the European to end our "Major Drought"? Very possibly...
ROSE: Another real chance, and playing well, though recent niggly injuries concern me a bit. May challenge, may end the weekend on the leaderboard, but I just cannot see him winning.
CINK: Has everything he needs in his bag, but one thing. The confidence and belief he can actually win a major. The "nearly man" may go close again, but may not walk away with the spoils, or will he? I've put a few REAL bets on Cink in my time - do we give him another chance?
TOMS: David Toms' only drawback is his relative lack of length. Everything else fits the bill, but because of his "shortness", I'll cautiously dicount him. He's sure to be in the thick of things with his accuracy, but maybe not a winner come sunday...
SABBATINI: Playing very well indeed at the moment. But has the patience of a small child with ADHD, stuffed full of E numbers. Easily the least patient, most hot-headed player on tour, and that will mean (like Monty) he will NEVER win a U.S. Open, even though he possibly has the all round game for it.
CHOI: Recent winner. Other than that, not really.
IMMELMAN: Has played really well this year until recently. His sketchy form recently though can be excused - he has been really quite unwell with severe recurring food-poisoning, (he's lost 22lb in weight because of it). I think Immelman, if completely fit, may well be a dark horse at Oakmont.
O'HAIR: Another real outsider to REALLY consider. Long AND straight, (the best on tour in fact) - if Sean O' Hair can sink a few par putts, he may well walk away with this whilst no-one is looking. Bang on form too.
CASEY: Long enough, but maybe not straight enough. Do his Ryder Cup comments still count against him in the U.S. of A? I think so, no matter how much he pretends they don't.
VERPLANK: Consistent. Straight. Experienced. Patient. Great putter. Recent winner (after a 6 year gap from victory). Another ex-betting favourite of mine. Usually the Bridesmaid, bu maybe... just maybe... he can get to the aisle this week. Nerves will be key for Scott...
ALLENBY: Another real chance here, at huge odds 100-1. very good GIR figures, has recently bounced back to top-class form, and has all the shots in his bag. Good U.S. Open form too- seventh in the almost unplayable Shinnecock Hills in 2004. I think Allenby may well win this, or at least go close, if he can sort out his putting, which can be a bit dodgy.
OK. There you go. Make of all that what you will.
I've decided to back a couple of my old stalwarts, throw in the man that everyone seems to be backing at present, the new kid on the block (the best value in the entire field) and an injured warhorse...
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
SELECTIONS:
JOHNSON £1 e/w 50-1
CINK £1 e/w 50-1
VERPLANK £1 e/w 80-1
MICKLESON £1.50p e/w 18-1
FURYK 75p e/w 20-1
Current balance before tournament: £432.63p
Stake: £10.50p
Balance after stake: £422.13p
==============================================
RESULT:
JOHNSON: =45th
CINK: m/c
VERPLANK: =7th
MICKLESON: m/c
FURYK: =2nd
WINNINGS: £4.50p
PROFIT/LOSS:- £6
CLOSING BALANCE: £426.63p
COMMENT: Not a great result for "Twenty-Six", it could have been MUCH better if Jim Furyk had not tried to drive the 306yd par 4 17th, (which he inevitably bogied, and made him eventually finish tied 2nd with Woods).
A fantastic result though for Cabrera (and I suppose, the European Tour). Angel is a great player, thats for sure, but I'd never have him for the US Open. Famed for smashing the balls miles (but NOT his accuracy), his very good putting (which possibly won it for him at Oakmont), and his love of Wentworth - I do like the burly Argentine - but then again, I'm a big fan of all the Argy golfers - especially the ever-smiling (champs tour now) Eduardo Romero.
Anyway, neither Woods nor Furyk could catch Angel, even though he gave 'em a chance by dropping two strokes late on.
As for my other selections, Cink started well, then had a horrid 2nd round 80 - and missed the cut. Big Phil did the same (maybe his wrist is still a bit sore), Johnson was never in it but at least boring boring Scott Verplank at least was on the leaderboard come sunday night.
Interesting to see Bubba Watson (the longest driver in the world) make the sunday final leaderboard also - like Cabrera, I'd never given hima chance.
If one is THAT long - (like Angel and Bubba), does that negate the need for pinpoint accuracy these days at Oakmont? Possibly, though possibly not as David Toms did what he promised to do.... play solidly, hit every fairway 80 yards behind the big guns, challenge but never really for the win.
Overall - great to see a European tour Stalwart and an Argentine make off with the loot, but not one of the best results for "Twenty-Six". Let's do better in the next major, eh...?!
We arrive at the second Major of the year, the US Open, this year being held at Oakmont Golf Club, outside Pittsburgh, reputably, America's most difficult course - a devilish par 70 hilly layout.
The frankly ridiculous 288yd par 3 eighth, the cough cough, very short, 667yd par 5 twelth, long, punishing rough, 25 yd wide fairways and greens that are slicker than a lubed-up eel (stimpmeter value 13!!!), lie in wait for the hopefuls this week.
Eight over par come sunday may well win the prize, and we (as punters) will have to look for accuracy off the tee, combined with length, and almost certainly a fair amount of experience and PATIENCE, plus the nerves of steel with a flat stick. Difficult? Absolutely. But it looks (on paper anyway) as though this could be a really open Open (if you catch my drift).
A few notes on the golfers heading the market and some longer shots...
WOODS: The hot favourite (of course) at 3-1. Drifting though, no value, and easy to oppose this week. I hear Woods has been struggling to focus during practice, because the tournament is bringing back memories of losing his father at this time last year. Woods has made two visits to Oakmont last week, and has suggested he'll use his driver sparingly- instead opting instead for his now trademark "Stinger (low, punchy) 3 wood" off tight tees. Hard to be enthusiastic about, but as usual, the best golfer in the field - by a country mile.
MICKLESON: Has the game, especially as he's found a driver that he likes, and can hit a long, long way. One concern is his wrist injury - there's no doubt that the fearsome rough at Oakmont will test Lefty's wrist - beware the injured golfer, but maybe Oakmont has just come too soon for Big Phil, or maybe not....?!!!
SINGH: Difficult to get behind the Willowy Fijian, as he is STILL chopping and changing his putters. Belly putter to short. Short to Belly. This week we need a pro who is comfortable with his flat stick, if only to salvage 6-8' par putts. Maybe not VeeJay.
FURYK: Interesting. Very interesting. Experienced. Patient. Straight-hitting. Due one. Possibly a real contender this week.
ELS: Won at Oakmont in 1994 but not playing in the same rich vein of form this year. He would quite literally have to turn his season around to win here, but maybe, just maybe, his memories of 1994 may help him in that quest? Not for me though.
SCOTT: Unlike Els at the moment, in a rich vein of form right now. One to consider, and about time he added to his only real big win so far, the 2004 TPC at Sawgrass.
GOOSEN: Has looked disinterested recently. BUT, (and he is amazed people don't give him credit for this), he is a recent DOUBLE U.S.Open champion, and you ignore the dull South African at your peril!
HARRINGTON: Playing very well at the moment. But prone to errors in big tournaments.
DONALD: Cool, calm, collected. Patient. Striaght as a die. Used to American courses, based in Chicago so used to the Pittsburgh set-ups. Could do well, if he can find some sort of (alien to him) "Killer instinct"...
GARCIA: Has the tee-to green game, but NOT the putting head (he's awful on the dance-floor) and no patience either. I don't think so.
G.OGILVY: Possibilities for last years winner at Winged Foot, and would continue the awful American run in their own open, should he win. But I prefer others...
JOHNSON: Masters winner already this year, and the best American golfer this year, so far. But surely "Gad" can't be on his side at Oakmont AND Augusta, even if he is omnipotent! I think he's got another major in him, but he's not good enough to win two in one year is he? Withdrew from last weeks warm up with a severe throat infection, but ok now, and lies a lofty 4th in the driving accuracy statistics on the tour - imperative here...
STENSON: Real chances. Long, straight and experienced enough. Could Henrik be the European to end our "Major Drought"? Very possibly...
ROSE: Another real chance, and playing well, though recent niggly injuries concern me a bit. May challenge, may end the weekend on the leaderboard, but I just cannot see him winning.
CINK: Has everything he needs in his bag, but one thing. The confidence and belief he can actually win a major. The "nearly man" may go close again, but may not walk away with the spoils, or will he? I've put a few REAL bets on Cink in my time - do we give him another chance?
TOMS: David Toms' only drawback is his relative lack of length. Everything else fits the bill, but because of his "shortness", I'll cautiously dicount him. He's sure to be in the thick of things with his accuracy, but maybe not a winner come sunday...
SABBATINI: Playing very well indeed at the moment. But has the patience of a small child with ADHD, stuffed full of E numbers. Easily the least patient, most hot-headed player on tour, and that will mean (like Monty) he will NEVER win a U.S. Open, even though he possibly has the all round game for it.
CHOI: Recent winner. Other than that, not really.
IMMELMAN: Has played really well this year until recently. His sketchy form recently though can be excused - he has been really quite unwell with severe recurring food-poisoning, (he's lost 22lb in weight because of it). I think Immelman, if completely fit, may well be a dark horse at Oakmont.
O'HAIR: Another real outsider to REALLY consider. Long AND straight, (the best on tour in fact) - if Sean O' Hair can sink a few par putts, he may well walk away with this whilst no-one is looking. Bang on form too.
CASEY: Long enough, but maybe not straight enough. Do his Ryder Cup comments still count against him in the U.S. of A? I think so, no matter how much he pretends they don't.
VERPLANK: Consistent. Straight. Experienced. Patient. Great putter. Recent winner (after a 6 year gap from victory). Another ex-betting favourite of mine. Usually the Bridesmaid, bu maybe... just maybe... he can get to the aisle this week. Nerves will be key for Scott...
ALLENBY: Another real chance here, at huge odds 100-1. very good GIR figures, has recently bounced back to top-class form, and has all the shots in his bag. Good U.S. Open form too- seventh in the almost unplayable Shinnecock Hills in 2004. I think Allenby may well win this, or at least go close, if he can sort out his putting, which can be a bit dodgy.
OK. There you go. Make of all that what you will.
I've decided to back a couple of my old stalwarts, throw in the man that everyone seems to be backing at present, the new kid on the block (the best value in the entire field) and an injured warhorse...
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
SELECTIONS:
JOHNSON £1 e/w 50-1
CINK £1 e/w 50-1
VERPLANK £1 e/w 80-1
MICKLESON £1.50p e/w 18-1
FURYK 75p e/w 20-1
Current balance before tournament: £432.63p
Stake: £10.50p
Balance after stake: £422.13p
==============================================
RESULT:
JOHNSON: =45th
CINK: m/c
VERPLANK: =7th
MICKLESON: m/c
FURYK: =2nd
WINNINGS: £4.50p
PROFIT/LOSS:- £6
CLOSING BALANCE: £426.63p
COMMENT: Not a great result for "Twenty-Six", it could have been MUCH better if Jim Furyk had not tried to drive the 306yd par 4 17th, (which he inevitably bogied, and made him eventually finish tied 2nd with Woods).
A fantastic result though for Cabrera (and I suppose, the European Tour). Angel is a great player, thats for sure, but I'd never have him for the US Open. Famed for smashing the balls miles (but NOT his accuracy), his very good putting (which possibly won it for him at Oakmont), and his love of Wentworth - I do like the burly Argentine - but then again, I'm a big fan of all the Argy golfers - especially the ever-smiling (champs tour now) Eduardo Romero.
Anyway, neither Woods nor Furyk could catch Angel, even though he gave 'em a chance by dropping two strokes late on.
As for my other selections, Cink started well, then had a horrid 2nd round 80 - and missed the cut. Big Phil did the same (maybe his wrist is still a bit sore), Johnson was never in it but at least boring boring Scott Verplank at least was on the leaderboard come sunday night.
Interesting to see Bubba Watson (the longest driver in the world) make the sunday final leaderboard also - like Cabrera, I'd never given hima chance.
If one is THAT long - (like Angel and Bubba), does that negate the need for pinpoint accuracy these days at Oakmont? Possibly, though possibly not as David Toms did what he promised to do.... play solidly, hit every fairway 80 yards behind the big guns, challenge but never really for the win.
Overall - great to see a European tour Stalwart and an Argentine make off with the loot, but not one of the best results for "Twenty-Six". Let's do better in the next major, eh...?!
Wednesday, June 06, 2007
21. BA-CA GOLF OPEN FONTANA GC, AUSTRIA, 7-10 JUNE 07
Riding on the crest of a wave after last week (and a double at that) we must hold our horses this week, and go through a "lull before the (US Open) storm".
Austria this week, and a relitavely poor field of 156 playing at the impressive Fontana GC, Austria's best course by some way.
It has a lake the size of Michigan, and trees the size of Giant Redwoods, though is only a par 71, and low scores (like last week) are regular occurrences.
Marcus Brier, the local lad from Vienna, is favourite for this event, having won it twice in the past 3 years, but a 3rd time may be a step too far for him, in the company of people like Westwood, Jimenez, Montgomerie and Green - the partisan crowds will add to the pressure also.
Lee Westwood is playing ok - sharing a twelfth place spot with Brier at Wentworth, is a winner this year again, after slimming down a tad, the chubby mongo, as should pick up tournaments like this with some ease.
Gary Murphy is great value, with decent current and course form - prerequisites in my book.
Gary Orr was in contention at Celtic Manor should've taken some heart for that, and even though he looks as miserable as sin, is still a fancy of mine - very unassuming, very quiet, very underrated - and often (like this week), very good value.
Colon Montgomerie will be looking to get his season back on track, just in time for the US Open - he should've maybe won here last year, but for a cataclysmically bad final 9 holes on sunday, and then there's Paul Broadhurst, the angry little pug dog. Broadhurst (unlike Orr) demands more attention from the press, is a multiple tour winner (without the recognition he deserves, he thinks), and could do himself a favour by winning here...
So.
Selections:
Murphy £1 e/w 55-1
Westwood £1.50p e/w 12-1
Broadhurst £1 e/w 25-1
Montgomerie £1 e/w 14-1
Orr 75p e/w 50-1
Balance before stake: £443.13p
Stake: £10.50p
Balance after stake: £432.63p
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Result:
Murphy m/c
Westwood =52nd
Broadhurst =35th
Montgomerie m/c
Orr =14th
Winnings: £0
Profit/loss: -£10.50p
Closing balance after tournament: £432.63p
COMMENT: Well. We couldn't do it again so soon could we? A poor result for "Twenty-Six" - Lee Westwood challenged in round 1, Gary Orr was thereabouts early in round 4 (one of the last to tee off), but nothing in the end, even though in the preview to the tournament I mentioned the eventual winners name... Note to self - read what I write as a preview!!!
The tournament was delayed due to inclement weather, and eventually, the perennial bridesmaid Richard Green triumphed over Jean Francois Remesy in a playoff.
It is nice to see (motor-mad) Green win again. People have labelled him a bottler, but truth be told, he probably just isn't as focussed as your average golfing pro, who is little more than a machine. Richard Green is one of those pros who has a life outside golf (racing cars) and possibly feels he earns quite enough competing and often coming second on tour!
Did all the star players both in Europe and the USA 'take a week off this week' in preparation for this next week's US Open? Possibly...?!
Austria this week, and a relitavely poor field of 156 playing at the impressive Fontana GC, Austria's best course by some way.
It has a lake the size of Michigan, and trees the size of Giant Redwoods, though is only a par 71, and low scores (like last week) are regular occurrences.
Marcus Brier, the local lad from Vienna, is favourite for this event, having won it twice in the past 3 years, but a 3rd time may be a step too far for him, in the company of people like Westwood, Jimenez, Montgomerie and Green - the partisan crowds will add to the pressure also.
Lee Westwood is playing ok - sharing a twelfth place spot with Brier at Wentworth, is a winner this year again, after slimming down a tad, the chubby mongo, as should pick up tournaments like this with some ease.
Gary Murphy is great value, with decent current and course form - prerequisites in my book.
Gary Orr was in contention at Celtic Manor should've taken some heart for that, and even though he looks as miserable as sin, is still a fancy of mine - very unassuming, very quiet, very underrated - and often (like this week), very good value.
Colon Montgomerie will be looking to get his season back on track, just in time for the US Open - he should've maybe won here last year, but for a cataclysmically bad final 9 holes on sunday, and then there's Paul Broadhurst, the angry little pug dog. Broadhurst (unlike Orr) demands more attention from the press, is a multiple tour winner (without the recognition he deserves, he thinks), and could do himself a favour by winning here...
So.
Selections:
Murphy £1 e/w 55-1
Westwood £1.50p e/w 12-1
Broadhurst £1 e/w 25-1
Montgomerie £1 e/w 14-1
Orr 75p e/w 50-1
Balance before stake: £443.13p
Stake: £10.50p
Balance after stake: £432.63p
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Result:
Murphy m/c
Westwood =52nd
Broadhurst =35th
Montgomerie m/c
Orr =14th
Winnings: £0
Profit/loss: -£10.50p
Closing balance after tournament: £432.63p
COMMENT: Well. We couldn't do it again so soon could we? A poor result for "Twenty-Six" - Lee Westwood challenged in round 1, Gary Orr was thereabouts early in round 4 (one of the last to tee off), but nothing in the end, even though in the preview to the tournament I mentioned the eventual winners name... Note to self - read what I write as a preview!!!
The tournament was delayed due to inclement weather, and eventually, the perennial bridesmaid Richard Green triumphed over Jean Francois Remesy in a playoff.
It is nice to see (motor-mad) Green win again. People have labelled him a bottler, but truth be told, he probably just isn't as focussed as your average golfing pro, who is little more than a machine. Richard Green is one of those pros who has a life outside golf (racing cars) and possibly feels he earns quite enough competing and often coming second on tour!
Did all the star players both in Europe and the USA 'take a week off this week' in preparation for this next week's US Open? Possibly...?!
Sunday, June 03, 2007
SUNDAY JUNE 3RD
What a week! The best ever? UNDOUBTEDLY!
6 e/w selections (5 golfers and a horse)
1 win and 3 e/w place results.
If you had staked £5 e/w on each of the six "Twenty-Six" tips this week, your initial outlay would've been £60.
But then again, your winnings would've been £207.50p
and you'd've made a net profit of £147.50p!
It's taken a wee while, it was always coming...
Welcome to TWENTY SIX, the home of great sports tips...
6 e/w selections (5 golfers and a horse)
1 win and 3 e/w place results.
If you had staked £5 e/w on each of the six "Twenty-Six" tips this week, your initial outlay would've been £60.
But then again, your winnings would've been £207.50p
and you'd've made a net profit of £147.50p!
It's taken a wee while, it was always coming...
Welcome to TWENTY SIX, the home of great sports tips...
Saturday, June 02, 2007
THE DERBY
For what its worth, today is Derby Day at Epsom. One of the three (and only three) horse races I've had a flutter on (with real money), the other two being, of course, the Gold Cup and the National (by far my favourite, and the only race I'd probably consider always having a punt on).
The strange thing I suppose about this year's race is the fact that out of the entire field (17 or 18 horses, 17 at the moment I think), EIGHT of them are trained by one man - Aiden O'Brian. That must be a record - to train eight horses good enough to enter one of the world's most famous and important races.
I'm reliably informed from the family connections (masons.... sssh) that there may be some value (dangerous word) to be had this year.
The outstanding, and indeed ODDS ON favourite, is Frankie Dettori's geegee, "Authorised". Willie Carson thinks all he has to do is turn up and do what he does normally - and he WILL win.
But at those odds?! Pah! "TwentySix" readers deserve better.
So...
I'm told that "AQALEEM" at odds of around 9-1 may well just surprise a few people.
The last (and only time) I bet on the Derby, it was thanks to a "Mason Tip", the horse was called "Sindaar" - and it duly won!
The Masons are due a winner, and guess what...
AQALEEM is the SON of SINDAAR! (Twilight zone moment)
Thought you should know...
The strange thing I suppose about this year's race is the fact that out of the entire field (17 or 18 horses, 17 at the moment I think), EIGHT of them are trained by one man - Aiden O'Brian. That must be a record - to train eight horses good enough to enter one of the world's most famous and important races.
I'm reliably informed from the family connections (masons.... sssh) that there may be some value (dangerous word) to be had this year.
The outstanding, and indeed ODDS ON favourite, is Frankie Dettori's geegee, "Authorised". Willie Carson thinks all he has to do is turn up and do what he does normally - and he WILL win.
But at those odds?! Pah! "TwentySix" readers deserve better.
So...
I'm told that "AQALEEM" at odds of around 9-1 may well just surprise a few people.
The last (and only time) I bet on the Derby, it was thanks to a "Mason Tip", the horse was called "Sindaar" - and it duly won!
The Masons are due a winner, and guess what...
AQALEEM is the SON of SINDAAR! (Twilight zone moment)
Thought you should know...
AT 20:20hrs. (After the race) Well. THIRD ain't so bad, IF you had it E/W?
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