Three years ago I followed the entire European Golf Tour, (start to finish), (plus a few of the larger American tournaments) running a "virtual betting" competition against a pal, with a starting balance of £500; using our own tips and the correct bookies odds, to see if we made any "virtual profit" at the end of the season.
I also took on a world-reknowned golfing tipster, to see if it was all down to luck, and a mugs game...
I documented the whole year in a hardback notebook and have kept it for future reference.
The result? I comprehensively beat my pal, who got fed up of me "lending him virtual money" and gave up. I also beat the expert by about £50 by the end of the season, having made a "virtual profit" of just over £500, after "virtual betting" on around 40 tournaments.
I have made many (documented) conclusions regarding ACTUALLY putting REAL money on golf tournaments which I've summarised from my hardback below...
1) It IS a mug's game - best bet: NO BET!
2) If I do bet on the Open / PGA for example, check my 2004 hardback!
3) CURRENT FORM is generally a better guide than COURSE FORM
4) Value isn't all that important
5) Bet early in the season
6) Steer clear of "Bridesmaids", (Nick O'Hern etc... (although HE'S just won!))
7) Disregard dodgy putters
8) On the US tour, LENGTH of drive often important
9) Catch someone on a roll, before the inevitable 'crash'
10) NEVER disregard golfers on their own patch or country
11) If placing a bet (I wouldn't though) keep stakes LOW!
Whilst I made an eventual "virtual profit" of around £500, this came pretty well down to a few great results (shown below). The majority of my "virtual bets" went tits up, obviously.
My best results for the 2004 season were as follows...
BOONCHU RUANGIT 100-1. (4th in the Johnnie Walker Classic, Thailand).
£5 e/w. PROFIT OF £125
THONGCHAI JAIDEE 14-1. (WON the Malaysian Open, Kualar Lumpar).
£100 e/w. PROFIT £1100!
TIGER WOODS 4-1. (WON Accenture World MatchPlay Champs, Carlsbad, CA)
£140 e/w. PROFIT £700
ERNIE ELS 5-1. (3rd in the Dubai Desert Classic, Emirates Club)
£90 e/w. PROFIT £112.50p
ADAM SCOTT 50-1. (WON the '5th Major', TPC at Sawgrass, USA)
£30 e/w. PROFIT £1875
ERNIE ELS 10-1. (2nd in the Masters at Augusta, Georgia)
£250 e/w. PROFIT £625
STEVEN GALLACHER 50-1. (2nd in the Seville Open)
£25 e/w. PROFIT £287.50p
SOREN KJELDSEN 150-1. (5th in TPC Europe, the Deutschbank Open,St.Leon Rot)
£50 e/w. PROFIT £1825.50p
ANDERS HANSEN 40-1. (4th in the Volvo PGA Champs, Wentworth, Surrey)
£50 e/w. PROFIT £450
GRAHAM McDOWELL 40-1. (4th in the French Open)
£50 e/w. PROFIT £450
ANDERS HANSEN 66-1. (4th in the Heritage at Woburn(Duke's Course))
£25 e/w. PROFIT £387.50p
You will see that after totalling up all these profits, to only make a final profit of £500 means I lost a shitload of money on other "virtual bets" during the year.
You will also note that my "tips" only WON 3 times - JAIDEE, WOODS and SCOTT.
The most 'satisfying' result for me was the ADAM SCOTT win. I could not believe he was quoted at 50-1 before the TPC started. I try not to bet with real money on the golf, but my bakery pal at the time, had a wee bit of spare moolah, and I'd got him interested in betting, so he put real money on at the bookies and made a tidy sum thanks to me. It nearly went pear-shaped though. If you are a golf fan, you might remember Adam putting his approach to the last into the water, getting away with it with a very cool (under the circumstances) 'up and down' for a final bogey and a first big win.
My most satisfying result from a REAL golf bet was the fine result I had on 'The Elk' STEVE ELKINGTON who was involved in a playoff for the 2002 Open at Muirfield.
Down and out after two rounds, you might remember a freak 'hurricane' passed over the course late in day two, WELL after Steve had completed his 2nd round, but laying waste to the scores of those still out - including Woods et al.
Elkington amazingly therefore started round 3 very near the top of the leaderboard, and come sunday, he actually had a 20'putt on the last to WIN it. At 250-1!!! I would have retired on that!
Of course he missed, and disappointed in the playoff. Nice result for me anyway though at HUGE odds. £2.50p e/w made me a profit of just over £150. All down to the freaky weather at the time...!
Right. 3 years off.
Time to start again....
There will an opening balance of £500 again, tips,odds and breakdown with maybe a few comments...
maximum of a £10 TOTAL stake per tournament.
Here we go...!
2 comments:
BOONCHU RUANGIT? You made that up!
heh heh. an ageing asian golfer (Thai, if memory serves me correctly).
All documented in my book if you want proof, and I'm sure, checkable on tinterweb.
If I remember him correctly, because of his age, the bookies never game him any chance at all, but those sneaky old Thais are ALWAYS worth looking at in their neck of the woods, if only because they are well used to the incredible humidity and inevitable 'thunderstorm breaks' in the afternoons...
NB. Regarding Boonchu, I also seem to remember there being some debate on how exactly to spell his name.
I think he may have retired by now, but may still play the odd main tour event in the Far East.
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