Now, as we all know, if you put 40 hulking great horses in a race, with a load of bloody great fences, the result is indeed a lottery, and you might as well resort to pin-sticking to pick the winner.
BUT
And it's a big but. There are MANY horses in the list of entries and indeed the final list of 40 starters that can be IMMEDIATELY ruled out. Even if they stay on their feet, they WILL NOT WIN!
SO
A lottery it still is, but a lottery where you can dramatically improve your chances of winning, or if you like, NOT losing!
If like my mother and I, you buy the Racing Post around this time of year, (the important one came a few wednesdays ago with regards to The National), you will know what I mean, just by looking at the Grand National Trends. I'm sure there will be websites devoted to these also - use Google.
Age. Class. ( RP rating). Topspeed. Weight. Races entered or taken part in. Stamina.
They ALL point to one type of horse.
No horse with an age of less than 8, (9 preferably) will win The National.
No horse with an RPR of less than 137 will win The National.
No horse carrying more than 11st 5lb will win the National. *
No horse starting at >40-1 in the antepost market will win The National.
No horse who hasn't won at least a £17,000 race beforehand will win The National.
Race day favourite VERY rarely wins The National.
No horse that runs or does well at Cheltenham will win The National.**
*This is constantly getting less reliable as the Handicap becomes more and more compressed, year after year. It used to be absolutely foolproof.
**This year this is less important as there is a slightly bigger gap between the Festival and Aintree, but it's often a VERY GOOD pointer to pick a horse that DOESN'T RUN at Cheltenham...
Get a list of the entries, and using the points above and cross out most of the entries.
I have bet on The National since 1989, when I "won" on 33-1 shot Little Polvier. Since then, I admit, my record has been patchy. My best win came a few years ago (1994 I think) when I had the FIRST and SECOND over the line with Minnehoma and Just So. Last year, Anna and I bet together for the first time - we won a nice sum on Numbersixvalverde and therefore have a 100% strike rate at present.
The female members of my family especially my mother and Jacqueline (with her 'inside' knowledge) seem to win every year though!
I HAVE been known to pick the horse that falls at the first (me and Anna also bet on Innox last year which did just that), and it was my horse (Brown Windsor if I remember correctly) that famously got his nose caught in the tape a few years ago, causing the 'void race' which Esha Ness (Mum's bet) "didn't win".
I'm going to give you the THREE HORSES that I'm looking at, at present. In no particular order.
But you might want to ignore all this, and follow the most recent and possibly the most important trend, i.e. The horse that WILL WIN The National will be IRISH TRAINED and specifically laid out for this race. (lightly exposed). Dun Doire and Point Barrow fit this bill.
The Three horses that I'm considering at the moment... are...
(bear in mind, that one of these horses will just stand on the start line and refuse to go anywhere, one will certainly be the first to fall - my speciality - but bettable on at bookmakers these days, and the other horse will win!)
The three horses are.... in no order...
If like my mother and I, you buy the Racing Post around this time of year, (the important one came a few wednesdays ago with regards to The National), you will know what I mean, just by looking at the Grand National Trends. I'm sure there will be websites devoted to these also - use Google.
Age. Class. ( RP rating). Topspeed. Weight. Races entered or taken part in. Stamina.
They ALL point to one type of horse.
No horse with an age of less than 8, (9 preferably) will win The National.
No horse with an RPR of less than 137 will win The National.
No horse carrying more than 11st 5lb will win the National. *
No horse starting at >40-1 in the antepost market will win The National.
No horse who hasn't won at least a £17,000 race beforehand will win The National.
Race day favourite VERY rarely wins The National.
No horse that runs or does well at Cheltenham will win The National.**
*This is constantly getting less reliable as the Handicap becomes more and more compressed, year after year. It used to be absolutely foolproof.
**This year this is less important as there is a slightly bigger gap between the Festival and Aintree, but it's often a VERY GOOD pointer to pick a horse that DOESN'T RUN at Cheltenham...
Get a list of the entries, and using the points above and cross out most of the entries.
I have bet on The National since 1989, when I "won" on 33-1 shot Little Polvier. Since then, I admit, my record has been patchy. My best win came a few years ago (1994 I think) when I had the FIRST and SECOND over the line with Minnehoma and Just So. Last year, Anna and I bet together for the first time - we won a nice sum on Numbersixvalverde and therefore have a 100% strike rate at present.
The female members of my family especially my mother and Jacqueline (with her 'inside' knowledge) seem to win every year though!
I HAVE been known to pick the horse that falls at the first (me and Anna also bet on Innox last year which did just that), and it was my horse (Brown Windsor if I remember correctly) that famously got his nose caught in the tape a few years ago, causing the 'void race' which Esha Ness (Mum's bet) "didn't win".
I'm going to give you the THREE HORSES that I'm looking at, at present. In no particular order.
But you might want to ignore all this, and follow the most recent and possibly the most important trend, i.e. The horse that WILL WIN The National will be IRISH TRAINED and specifically laid out for this race. (lightly exposed). Dun Doire and Point Barrow fit this bill.
The Three horses that I'm considering at the moment... are...
(bear in mind, that one of these horses will just stand on the start line and refuse to go anywhere, one will certainly be the first to fall - my speciality - but bettable on at bookmakers these days, and the other horse will win!)
The three horses are.... in no order...
NIL DESPERANDUM
LIBERTHINE
KELAMI
LIBERTHINE
KELAMI
You heard it here first!
I will add more Grand National Posts as and when...
I will add more Grand National Posts as and when...
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