After last weeks US Open, back to reality now, and a MUCH easier golf course - Nord-Eichenried, which has staged this event for years and years. Big wide fairways, straightforward flat greens and a long-hitters paradise, this course was somewhat toughened up last year by growing up the rough and adding a few bunkers here and there.
The BMW International always seems to produce a top drawer winner - Stenson, Howell, Jimenez, Westwood, Bjorn, Daly and Montgomerie to name the last 8 winneres (Bjorn twice), but I'm prepared to dodge the favourites, the household names, this week, after last weeks mammoth efforts at Oakmont.
So, I'll leave Els, Casey and Stenson, and look further down the book...
Value of the week has to be Raphael Jacquelin, who seems to be in the form of his life, and value seems to be a theme in my selections - possibly overlooked by the bookies this week...
Opening Balance: £426.63p
Selections:
JACQUELIN £2 e/w 33-1
A.CANIZARES £1 e/w 50-1
A.ROMERO £1 e/w 40-1
GONZALEZ 50p e/w 125-1
ERLANDSSON 50p e/w 80-1
Stake: £10
Balance after Stake: £416.63p
=====================================
RESULT:
Jacquelin - =11th
Canizares - =52nd
Romero - =22nd
Gonzalez - =4th
Erlandsson - =43rd
Winnings: £10.75
Profit/Loss: +75p!!!
Balance after tournament: £427.38p
COMMENT: One of those piss-infuiating weeks I'm afraid, and a CLEAR EXAMPLE of why betting with real money on golf (for the most part, anyway) is a mug's game. Even when you win... you lose!!!
At one point of the proceedings ths week, I thought I was about to complete a clean sweep. All 5 of my selections had made the cut with ease, and ALL were challenging at the top of the leaderboard.
Unfortunately, it was only "Big Ricky Gonzo" (at 125-1 mind) who played well for all 4 rounds - the reason I'd selected him was that he always seems to play well here, no matter what form he'd been in previous to this tournament - a real "horses for courses" selection if there ever was one this week.
Well. He came joint fourth. (But joint fifth and sixth as well). The bookies only pay out on FIVE places on an each-way bet. (Apart from "Jennings Bet" I think, who pay out on six places).
So, instead of winning a tidy profit, we just make 75p profit on the week - even though we predicted a 125-1 place bet and won!
Calculation of winnings shown below...
Odds of R.Gonzalez: 125-1 to win.
Odds of R.Gonzalez to grab a place (top 5): 125-1 /4 = 31.25
Stake: 50p (e/w)
Gonzalez came joint fourth, with 2 other people. These 3 golfers (inc Gonzalez) made up 4th, 5th and 6th place.
Bookies pay to 5th place only.
Therefore, winnings are:
((Place odds x place part of e/w stake)+ place part of e/w stake) x 2/3 (4th and 5th place / NOT 6th place)
((31.25 x 0.5)+0.5)x2/3 = 10.75p
If for example he had STILL finished joint 4th, but with one other golfer instead of 2, ie joint fourth and fifth, our winnings would NOT have to be multiplied by two/thirds (as above), as our man did not finish joint 6th as well as joint 4th and 5th, and we would have made a tidy £6+ profit on a £10 stake.
Understand?!
It happened to me at Wentworth once, with REAL money.
I strolled into the bookies after placing a few squid on Soren Kjeldsen at 150-1 to grab a place in the PGA final leaderboard. I thought I'd won a lot of moolah, as he DID grab a place, a share of fifth though, and as it 'appens, wit about 5 others. I slunk out of that bookies clutching little more than a return of my stake, even though my 150-1 tip had effectively beaten the bookies!
And that is the nature of golf betting my learned friends - unlike a horse race, where there is no real scope at all for dead heats, in golf (once you look past the winner), there is always a dead heat for 2nd, or 3rd, or 4th or even 5th.
The other problem with betting (for real) on golf anyway, is that your average horse race has, what, 15 runners and riders - your average golf tourney has 150+.
The bookies pay out top 3 places in most horse races, and top 5 in all golf tournaments!
You see problem?
They should at LEAST pay out to tenth place in a golf tournament...
Bastards...
AAnnnnyywaaaay....
Niclas Fasth won at Munich. (Even after he toiled away, the week before at Oakmont in the US Open). He's having a very successful (almost un-noticed) season is Niclas...
Right.
French open next week, then the European Open at the K Club, then the Scottish (at one of the most picturesque courses in the world - Loch Lomond), then, and only then...
THE OPEN. At Carnoustie.
(With luck my Dad, who's just gone back to live in Fife for his retirement days, may get to see that on the course).
I can't wait!
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment