Ok. After last weeks (predicted) farce, we move to the Emerald Isle, and the European Open at the K Club, although still being held temporarily on the less famous South course, rather than the usual North, which may affect punters who like to follow course form.
This course is long and tough, especially if the wind gets up. What with the weather forecast at the moment, it would be a surprise if anybody gets to double-figures under par, although the weekend forecast (until sunday) does look a little better than of late.
Well bunkered, bentgrass greens and water on 13 of the holes - this is a real test for the 156 players.
The favourite this week is Pod. BUT even though his last victory came at the recent Irish open, his course form is distinctly average, and his play in America hasn't exactly set the grass on fire recently.
I prefer the 3 below him in the market - Cabrera (brimming with confidence after his first major victory at the US Open), and nicely rested since. I hope he can cope with not being able to smoke in the clubhouse though, although saying that, Ireland have had the ban for some time now); Fasth (like I said recently - quietly having a VERY good season - the bookies have finally caught on) and Dredge - good course and current form).
Others to consider for the staking plan are Simon Khan (would have won in France by a mile, if he'd just holed a putt or two, and decent course form here), and Peter Hanson (second in Mondays Open Qualifying at Sunningdale - which I didn't manage to get to see this year - shame as firstly its free, secondly there are no spectator ropes, aw well).
Balance before tournament: £419.38p
Selections:
Cabrera £1.50p e/w 14-1
Dredge £1 e/w 20-1
Khan £1 e/w 40-1
Fasth £1.50p e/w 18-1
Hanson 50p e/w 40-1
Stake: £11
Balance after stake: £408.38p
--------------------------------------------------------------
Result:
CABRERA =60th
DREDGE m/c
KHAN =11th
FASTH 2nd
HANSON =3rd
Winnings: £12.83p
Profit/Loss: £1.83p
Closing balance after tournament: £421.21p
COMMENT:
Well. Not a huge profit, granted, but a profit nonetheless - a good week for "Twenty-Six", with 2 of the selections in the top 3. (A shame Peter Hanson not only finished joint 3rd, but also joint 4th, 5th and 6th also, which limited the winnings, and also a shame that only 50p each way was staked on him as a suggestion).
Colon Montgomerie won this won, his first win on tour since 2005 - is he peaking just at the right time for the big one at "Carnasty" in two weeks time? He stated that he hasn't played better for 8 years after his third round at the K Club, and held on (just) to win, on Sunday, after play was held up twice for Fasth et al after Montgomerie had started tucking into the pastries in the clubhouse after finishing his final round earlier in the day.
I wasn't too far away with my prediction of the winning score either. Montgomerie won with eleven under - I suggested that double-figures under par would be a very very good score this week.
I still don't think the fat boy from Troon has a major in him though. I guess we'll see in two weeks time, but next week, we travel up to Loch Lomond, for the traditional Open warm-up at the Scottish Open, one of Ernie Els' favourite courses...
I should point out here also, that the first TRUELY GREAT result from "Twenty-Six" came after twenty six posts.
The Scottish Open will be the twenty-sixth golf tournament that I've tipped on this year.
A good omen, or have I peaked too soon with a second and third this week (the twenty-fifth tournament)?
You'll just have to log on and find out this week...
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