A very poor field this week for the KLM Open near Zandvoort, at one of the shortest pro-courses in the world at a mere 6,626 yards - which should turn this tournament into little more than a glorified putting competition, as not only is the course very short indeed, but very generous of the tees also.
I guess the most interesting thing to say about this tournament is the fact that Bernhard Langer plays his 435th European Tour tournament this week, alongside his 17 year old son, Stefan, who is playing his first...
Opening balance: £393.96p
Selections:
Cevaer £1.50p e/w 33-1
Dyson (tournament favourite) £1 e/w 16-1
Langer £1 e/w 28-1
Levet £1 e/w 50-1
Brier 50p e/w 22-1
Total stake: £10
Balance after stake: £383.96p
========================================
Result:
Cevaer: =52nd
Dyson: =27th
Langer: =3rd
Levet: =3rd
Brier: =8th
Winnings: £12.90p
Profit / Loss: +£2.90p
Closing balance: £396.86p
Comment: After one of the poorer set of selections in last weeks tournament, to one of the best tournaments "Twenty Six" has had, although a clear example of why ACTUAL betting on golf doesn't pay - even when you win!
"TwentySix" chose 5 golfers, 3 of which finished in the top 8, 2 of which finished equal 3rd, and at odds of 50-1 (Levet) and 28-1 (Langer), this SHOULD have meant a decent return.
The trouble is that whilst Langer and Levet finished tied for third place, 3 others did also, on 8 under, which meant the next place taken on the leaderboard was eighth place (one of our picks also - Brier at 7 under).
Let me show you "the math".
Levet came 3rd at 50-1 £1 e/w.
The odds of a place bet are always ONE QUARTER the starting price to win in golf.
The formula for return is (odds x stake)+stake
So the return SHOULD HAVE BEEN (50/4 x 1)+1=£13.50p
BUT, because an each-way bet is generally only down to FIFTH place, the return is less than that, because altough Levet finished 3rd, he effectively also finished joint 7th as well, as he finished tied on a score which 4 others finished on also, ie 3rd and 4th and 5th and 6th and 7th.
THEREFORE the ACTUAL return is 3/5 x return, ie 3rd,4th,5th/3rd,4th,5th,6th,7th x return,
so in Levet's case, ACTUAL RETURN= 3/5x£13.50p = £8.10p
(And in Langer's case its 3/5x £8 = £4.80p
Do you see the injustice in this?! 156 golfers, we pick 5, 2 of which finish 3rd at odds of 28-1 and 50-1 and we get peanuts back...
This has happened to me in real life once, when I bet real money on Soren Kjeldsen at Wentworth a few years ago at huge odds. He came joint 5th and was expecting a bumper payback, until the kindly bookie (grrr!) explained to me that he finished joint 5th with about 5 other people, so my return was 1/5 what I thought it would be!
Anyway, enough of the injustices of betting on golf - Ross Fisher won this (The Dutch or KLM Open) tournament this year, after a "stewards enquiry". Hacks have been talking Ross up all year, saying he'd win something sooner rather than later, and hey, they were right - this is Ross's first win on the European tour.
Good to see Langer back in the groove again, after his kidney-stone op, and enforced 3 week lay off. Very bad to see his son struggle massively - I think he scored the SECOND WORST ROUND EVER ON THE EUROPEAN TOUR in the first round, with a score of TWENTY EIGHT OVER! ( I think Mark James holds the record with a score of over 100, if I remember correctly, but also if I remember correctly, he was playing through a bout of dysentry (or something) at the time of that round)! Stefan Langer improved to score Twenty-One over in the second round, to finish plumb last at FORTY-NINE OVER, and miss the cut by 49 strokes.
The Langers NEARLY had the unfortunate? record of having father and son play the same event, with father winning it and son coming last!
(I'm told Bernhard knew Stefan would struggle, as he's been tinkering with his swing - blimey, that's some tinkering - I'm pretty sure I could have beaten him with that score!)
Anyway, a small profit for "TwentySix", which is always better than a slap round the face with a wet halibut...
We're off to Gleneagles next... see you there.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment