Finally it's arrived. The best golf tournament of the year, at the hardest links course in the world, Carnoustie, in Angus, just east of Dundee, on the east coast of Scotland, a course that will be forever remembered as the course that did it for Jean Van de Velde in 1999.
Lets put that to bed straight away before we talk about this years contenders...
Many people will have it that Van de Velde threw his golden chance to win The Open in the bin that year, standing, as he was, on the final tee, 3 shots clear.
Looking at it like that, it is easy to come to that rather basic conclusion.
The facts are though, that far from throwing it away, he was the unfortunate recipient of a million-to-one freak result from a pretty good 2nd shot.
His drive was pushed short and right, and he hit a long iron from the rough for his second, OVER The Barry Burn by at least 20 yards. It hit a grandstand. Every time that happens, one would expect the ball to drop down, the golfer would get a free drop, and that would be that.
Not that time.
Van de Velde's ball hit a tiny piece of decorative metal on the grandstand and bounced back over the Barry Burn, maybe 50 yards, into a virtually unplayable lie. (Those pieces of metal don't even exist on grandstands any more).
Now his only possible mistake probably arose here.
Instead of "taking his medicine" and chipping out sideways (not guaranteed to find the fairway - people forget that), he attempted to cross the burn again.It was probably a 50/50 call as to whether he could pull off that, or even whether he could simply chip out sideways successfully - such was the lie he had.
Well, we know what happened then, and we bore witness to one of the most memorable holes of golf ever televised then, shoes and socks off and all.
What some people forget also, is that the Barry Burn is tidal. Van de Velde's ball when it landed in the burn was partially exposed. 10 minutes later when he was umming and arring about playing it (finally realising he couldn't really), it was under a 6 inches of water.
In my opinion, Peter Alliss finally lost the plot at this point, not Van de Velde. Sure, it was fascinating, enthralling, car-crash telly at its best, but Peter Alliss (up until THAT moment, quite an amusing commentator in the past) went, to quote him (about Van de Velde) "GaGa".
I've grown very tired of Peter Alliss now. I'm tired of him banging on about some octagenarian in Weybridge who has lost control over his bowel movements in the last week, and "We wish you well, dear old Albert" etc... etc..., not to mention how much better Peter Alliss was in his pomp, than whoever he is commentating on.
Unlike Murray Walker, Ted Lowe, Dan Maskell, Sid Waddell, Peter O'Sullevan and even David Coleman, Peter (they all play so SLOWLY these days) Alliss HAS outstayed his welcome. Bugger off fat-boy, and leave the terrestrial tv commentating to Wayne Grady (Old Lady), Ken Brown and Sam Torrance.
Back to Van de Velde though, the simple facts are that the hapless frenchman did not really throw the 1999 Open at "Carnasty" away, much less have it snatched from him by a freak result from a pretty good shot.
Greg Norman, for example, DID throw the 1996 US Masters down the pan - with bogey after bogey in the final round, to let Nick Faldo come back from 6 down on the first tee.
Doug Sanders DID throw the 1970 Open at St.Andrews down the pan, for example, with possibly the poorest putt ever (by a professional golfer) on that hallowed turf, and then getting run-over by Jack Nicklaus in the playoff.
If you asked Van de Velde if he would play any shot any different, if he could, he would tell you NON! (Thats not Gallic shruggy indifference or stupidity - dems de facts).
Add to ALL that, that Jean Van de Velde has THIS WEEK begun tests to determine whether or not he has bone cancer (and I know VERY WELL INDEED that Oncologists do not tend to get involved for no reason at all), and instead of ridiculing the very magnanimous, amusing Frenchman, we really should give him some credit.
We should also give some credit to the eventual winner, Scotland's own Paul Lawrie, who had a dream 67 in his final round in 1999 and played probably the best 4 iron of his entire career, on the final hole, to within feet - a once in a lifetime shot all in itself!
In 1999, everybody criticised everybody and everything.
Tom Lehman (reknowned for his gob at times, the quiet "man of god" that he is?!) suggested that "This year's (1999's) Open got the Champion (Lawrie) it deserved".
I agree with him, but for different reasons of course!
It was widely thought of as tough (not a problem for most golfers), and more importantly - UNFAIR.
Sandy Lyle complained about the greenkeepers watering and fertilising the heavy rough, all the intermediate rough had been burned away - the course was almost, almost unplayable. But not for Lawrie.
Phew! Right!
On to this year...
Well, the fairways have been widened, the intermediate rough (thanks to this year's wet summer) remains - so balls shouldn't run straight into the spinach, the greens are receptive (more rain again) and Carnoustie, this year, is, I suppose, is
as "Car-Nice-tee" as a brutal, 7,500 yards east coast monster links gets. It still won't be easy, but it most certainly will be fairer than in 1999, and from what I've seen of pictures of the course so far, it looks very, very green - very unlike the scorched links golf courses we all remember! The weather forecast for the four days does not look too bad right now, but the east coast of Scotland is famous for four seasons in one day - luck of the draw (as it always has in the Open) WILL play a huge part, especially if any wind does get up (it will!), BUT I fully expect the winning score to be UNDER par this year!
What of the contenders?
Some thoughts...
WOODS 7-2
Triple winner this year, the best golfer in the field by miles. A new father. (In 1999, Els was in the same boat - his daughter was 2 months old, Els played Carnoustie in a "blur", surrounded by nappies. He finished 24th. Woods is no Els though, and has taken preparation and concentration to new levels, both on and off the course. The "Nappy factor" is generally regarded as a good thing in professional golf anyway, ask Stuart Appelby or even Jack Nicklaus, who didn't win ANY of his majors before he started dropping sprogs so to speak.
If Woods gets a good draw (weather wise), he will win his third Open on the bounce.
And no mistake.
BUT... he's not guaranteed a fair draw. No-one is in the Open.
ELS 12-1
A poor season so far, until the final round at Loch Lomond last week. I've never seen him play better golf - he looked like he was going to eagle or birdy EVERY hole and his driving (both distance and accuracy) was perfect.
Carnoustie is a very different beast to the benign, tame Loch Lomond though.
Els has a brilliant Open record, and if he continues the form he showed in that last round on tha "Bonny banks", may well go close, again. Its a big IF though - you certainly wouldn't pick him on his seasons form....
MICKLESON. 20-1
Erratic driving at the Loch, a still-twinging wrist, no great Open form to speak of.
A Brilliant short game (up until last sunday?!) may stand him in good stead, and I like his attitude, but I'm looking elsewhere.
FURYK 22-1
Having a GREAT season. World #3. Accurate. Patient. Quiet. Good putter. Mixed Open record - either very good or very bad. Tenth at Carnoustie in 1999. Due a win. One to watch?
SINGH 28-1
Has been warming up in Angus for at least 10 days now - thats how much the golfaholic from Fiji wants this one. Very consistent on the leaderboard at The Open, but doesn't often threaten. If he has FINALLY settled on a putter that works for him, his unrivalled preparation may mean he has a chance.... Maybe, just maybe, the old forgotten man this year?
HARRINGTON 28-1
All the British media's pick for a home winner. Brought up on Links Golf. Won the Irish Open this year and instead of playing at Loch Lomond last week, he went home and played an Irish Links Tournament for pennies, for preparation for this week. Peaking nicely...
ROSE 33-1
Many media pundits are making a case for one of the nicest blokes on tour this week. He has fond memories of the Open also, if you remember, chipping in on the final hole from 50 yards or so (at Birkdale I think) to finish in the places as an amateur. He is on good form, but his back has been playing up of late. A real tryer, but may well not have the fire necessary to win - remember what happened at Wentworth this year?
DONALD 33-1
Very good last round at the Loch last week, like Ernie. Not a great Open record though (5 missed cuts out of 7). Patient enough, sure. Not a killer on the golf course yet - sure.
Not for me, though, of course, he will be a popular pick for British punters.
GARCIA 40-1
Sergio cried (literally!) into his mother's arms after two rounds at Carnoustie in 1999.
The tantrums have continued since then, and he cannot putt for toffee. May contend, may scream and shout and throw his clubs around, but he won't win until he grows up.
CASEY 40-1
Has the game, 2 good majors under his belt already this year (tenth in both), but a bit buggered with bad back injury recently. Preparation severely affected, so I'll swerve him.
FASTH 40-1
Double winner last year, the best current form this year of anyone competing this week, not bad Open form, fearless, more experienced than people think, a real ouside chance.
GOOSEN 45-1
Unlike Niclas above, Retief is probably having the WORST season of his career. He looks completely uninterested at the moment - 4 cuts missed in last 5 tournaments. No thanks.
SCOTT 45-1
Ahhh... Adam, the infuriating one. Completely unpredictable. Should have won an Open by now, such is his game and level of skill. Should have got two Claret Jugs maybe. Possibly overrated now though (number 4 in the world still?). Hmmm. Maybe not.
CABRERA 50-1
Current US Open champion. Mixed Open record. Certainly has the game to tame the monster, and if he can drive well, his enormous length (cough) will take fairway bunker sout of the equation. Angel either putts like something from heaven though, or something from the bowels of the earth - if his flat stick is on song, and his more wayward drives aren't punished, could well go well. He also most definitely has the confidence now after his first major. But no-one (apart from Woods and Nicklaus) wins two o the trot do they? DO THEY?!
MONTGOMERIE 50-1
As predicted last week, (after his victory the week before in the European Open), Monty imploded with pressure. That said, he almost beat Tiger at St.Andrews two years ago, and IS Carnoustie's 18 hole record holder (64). I still don't think the whiny girl has what it takes to win THE big one though. Don't spit in my face if I'm wrong on that count though!
STENSON 55-1
Great 2006, good start to 2007. Long and straight, and world number 7. Hasn't done much though, since becoming a first-time father. Maybe the "Nappy Factor" takes some time to kick in then? A very good player, unbeatable on his day, and won't be afraid of a little rain - Swedes who don't play in the rain, don't play! A favourite tip of mine, but not at the moment methinks...
POULTER 66-1
Settled down a bit of late, and much-improved. If he'd just concentrate on the game, rather than the fashion, he really should do much better. Has everything in his bag to compete for these biggies (including a hand-mirror, probably). In very good form at the moment - an awful lot of spectators at the Loch last week couldn't wait to put doon a few sovs on him for this.... You have been warned.
WESTWOOD 80-1
More of an inland player than a chip an' run beach golf player, definitely. Another win in him this year - I guess so, but not in Angus.
TOMS 80-1
Major specialist. (Mixed Open form though). Playing VERY WELL INDEED now, and a truely great putter. Has the accuracy off the tee also, and the patience. Maybe it's Toms Time?
APPELBY. 85-1
Great Open form, but mercurial week in, week out. If he's blowing hot, he'll contend, but absolutely (as his countryman Adam Scott) no guarantee of that. Fancied by a few tipsters though.
CLARKE 100-1
Improving week by week after (obviously) a miserable year. Scotland will be underwater with tears if "The Dazzler" can pull this off. Small chance, but I just cannot see it.
VERPLANK. 100-1
The bridesmaid. Always the bridesmaid. Has the game, great driving and putting. Then he bottles it. Every time. Putting money on Verplank makes YOU a plank this week.
ALLENBY 100-1
Good in his day. But those days are over my lanky Australian friend. No way.
BJORN 100-1
Now Thomas if you remember had his chance at Troon in 2003. And then promptly took a MILLION strokes to escape from a (not too difficult) trap, and got locked up in a special place for a few months after that. Temperamental at best, and the "Demons" are still flying around this (ever miserable-looking) Great Dane's baldy heed. Nope.
WEIR 100-1
I wrote him off a few tournaments ago, and he proved me wrong by finishing third or something.
So I'll do it again, and THIS time I'll be correct. No chance at Carnoustie.
JOHNSON 100-1
Well. He has got gawd on his side, so you never know. Nowhere near enough Links experience, and even though his early season form was unbeatable, he's slumped badly since. No sir.
IMMELMAN 15-1
One day. But not sunday. Literally half the man he was before he lost about ten stone due to a mystery stomach bug - just when he was looking like becoming a world beater. Well, he may get back there, but not just yet...
HOWELL 200-1
"The Howler" is probably my favourite golfer on tour right now. Very unassuming, very likeable, very difficult to beat when he's on form, and very prone to injury after injury. He's still smiling, though he MUST be pissed off by now. Next year moy san, next year.
LOVE III 250-1
Or as the Irish call him, "Davis Love da turd". Very good Open form indeed, but way past it now. Unlucky, yanky-chops.
LEHMAN 300-1
Let me down badly last week, the motor-mouthed God Squaddy. Useful at the moment, at least in the US of A, but not here, then. I've learned my lesson.
OTHERS TO CONSIDER?
McDOWELL 100-1 - loves links golf. Getting better and better
STERNE 100-1 - playing the season of his life
PETERSSON 125-1- playing very very well indeed, but I hear he's lost his clubs
KELLY 175-1 - again, current form very impressive
HANSON 200-1 - a REAL outsider. 200-1. MUST be worth a quid!
WEEKLEY 200-1 - Boo. Good game for links. I've warned you now.
There you go, grapple fans.
Make your own mind up.
I'm running 99th ou of 7,500 in the Fantasy Golf League at present, so I really need a good "double-bubble week here".
For the record....
Opening Balance: £414.96p
Selections:
WOODS £3 to win 7-2
FASTH £1 e/w 40-1
TOMS £1 e/w 85-1
CABRERA 75p e/w 50-1
FURYK 75p e/w 22-1
Stake: £10
Balance after Stake:£404.96p
========================================
RESULT:
Woods =12th
Fasth 35th
Toms m/c
Cabrera 34th
Furyk =12th
Winnings: £0
Profit / Loss : -£10
Closing balance after tournament: £404.96p
COMMENT:
Phew!
MORE drama than in '99? At least as much I'd say.
Pod finally won a major for Europe, though he nearly blew it at the final (regulation) hole when he hit it into the famous Barry burn TWICE!
As for the "26" picks-
Woods never really got going - many of his approaches were sprayed around the green rather than peppering the flag, and his first drive on round 3, blasted out of bounds with an iron (for safety?) summed his week up really.
Fasth - likewise. Maybe slightly ring rusty, though did threaten to break into the leaderboard witha fine penultimate round.
Toms - suffering from a sever head cold all week (I didn't know that beforehand), and predictably missed the cut.
Cabrera - disppointing from "The Duck". Wild shots and poor putting put pay to any challenge he might have made.
Furyk - always there or thereabouts, but never a serious challenger this week, and finished like a damp squib.
I'm rather glad Sergio did NOT win, as I confidently stated before the tournament that he certainly wouldn't! I very nearly had to eat a whole kitchen of humble pie, as he was odds on to win at the start of his final round - 3 shots ahead, and looking very much in control.
Quote of the week:
Harrington's little boy who raced onto the green to hug his Dad and look at the Claret Jug.
"Can we put ladybirds in it?!" (meaning the Claret Jug)
Harrington: "Sure we can. We can put ladybirds in it"!
Maybe I'm just a big softy, but that was great!
5 comments:
Tiger aside I really have no idea this year. If Mickelson can get his driving under control then he might have a shot at it, otherwise I dunno. I'd have said a streaky player like Casey having a hot week might have done it, but as you say he's been injured....so Harrington is probably the pick of the Europeans. As for the others - Verplank and Weir, and maybe Donald as well, are probably too short off the tee (though I like Weir's game, generally), Clarke is still (understandably) rubbish, and, much as I have a soft spot for Monty, I can't see it happening. So you've got to look to the big boys. Ernie maybe? I'd love to see Cabrera win another one, but I doubt it.
What we want is a close one, though, so that means the wind and rain scattering the field over the first few days to set up a thriller on Sunday. I'm in Cardiff Sunday morning and lunchtime but I'll be hot-footing it back to Bristol for an afternoon in front of the TV.....
And the "nappy factor" is tosh. I know it's only raised tongue in cheek stylee, but still. Jack Nicklaus was 21 when his first child was born, in 1961, the year before he turned professional. Now you could argue that his lack of success in majors before then was down to not having had kids, but I'd say it was more down to being (going back in time) a college student/a teenager/a small child/a foetus/non-existent. Don't underestimate the "actually existing factor" for golfers. Check the stats and you'll be quite lidderally amazed at how important it is.
Re. 1999 - I think (and I'm not offering an opinion) that one of the complaints was that the watering of the rough meant that shots which dribbled off the edge of the fairway ended up in impenetrable spinach but the really wild ones were (relatively) OK because they landed in the less lush, unwatered bit. Not that that sort of thing (i.e. really terrible shots turning out OK) is new to the Open - remember Seve's car park shot in 1979, or anyone who bypasses the rough completely and ends up on the next fairway.
Ah...
but Seve meant to hit that carpark, to benefit from the prevailing wind to the green.
That's what he said at the time anyway, when (I think it was) Hale Irwin suggested he was a spawny get.
And I'd rather be on the side of Seve than Hale.
Yeah, Seve says that.....
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